Hello everyone,
a lot of people, especially on twitter are very bullish about the current consensus happening in New York City.
https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/
But will it really spark a bullrun?
Probably not. But it might still boost the market a little bit, which is good isn't it?
Last year the consensus happened when there was already a bullrun. So that isn't really something to compare the current market to.
If you look at this chart from last years consensus that happened on May 22-24 you notice some things:
- The market was already in a upwards trend
- It pumped crazy while the consensus was happening
- It dumped right after. Or rather corrected to the growth of before the meeting.
Still, were probably some nice gains for people who sold ATH and bought back in at the dip.
Will this happen again?
I'll ask my magic ball. Nobody knows.
In 2016 the market was way to volatile - even more than now - to make any assumptions on the consensus (happened from May 2-4):
But in a bear market people search for anything that could charge an upwards trend. Basically hope.
It might happen, we never know, but I wouldn't bank on it personally.
You might be saying: Well those charts are only for bitcoin? What about alts?
Rightly so, usually all the alts follow BTC, don't they? Atleast in the overall trend. I do agree, some alts might get exposure and some are already shilled on reddit and stuff which might make them moon.
But it is always a "might". If you ask for my opinion: Then, yes. Some will moon, but I am not gonna shill them here, you can ask me per DM.
I personally think BTC won't make any big moves.
TL;DR
Don't expect too much this year from the consensus. The only evidence we have for it to affect prices is from last year where the market was already in an uptrend.
As always, it's just my opinion and I might be wrong. In this case, I hope I am ;-)
Leave me a like and/or an upvote on steem and twitter: https://twitter.com/crypto_german