Right before the Tezo's crowdfunding started I created a blog entry on why I was investing in Tezo's despite my concerns .
Now that the crowdfunding is over it would be ideal to go over some stats and also speculate on what the price will be when it hits the exchanges 4 to 6 months from now.
Thanks to @crypto-craic I don't have to do to much complicated math to figure out how much was raised and how many tokens were created. They put together a statistics page on canadiancrypto.io that breaks everything down.
How much was raised
Crypto nerds pumped 65,633 BTC and 361,122 ETH into Tezos making it the largest ICO in history. This equates to $232,997,224 dollars at current prices.
607,256,285 XTZ were distributed to 31,494 wallets. During the crowdfunding the price was 5,000 XTZ per 1 BTC with the first bonus period giving you an extra 1,000 XTZ. So at current BTC prices the tokens price ranged from 0.39 to .47 USD per token.
What will the prices be when XTZ becomes tradable
This is hard to say but futures trading has already been taking place on BixMex and it went as high as .0025 BTC ($5.95 USD). It is now trading at .000212 BTC ($0.50 USD) on Bitmex but I don't think this is any real indication of where it will be once the network becomes active. i think the best way to determine what the price will be is to look at some comparables .
Other tokens that have around 600 million coins are trading at levels lower than Tezo's crowdfunding prices. This is obviously a negative and was the major the risk of having an uncapped ico. Even with Steem at 237 million tokens would have a better valuation than Tezo's if the supply of Steem doubled. If hypothetically XTZ was to hit a dollar when it started trading it would have a market cap of $607,256,285 dollars. This would put it in the top 10 from the jump right between IOTA and NEM
Conclusion
Base on comparables and the futures trading I think there is going to be a huge pump followed by a huge dump when XTZ starts trading. They are the new kid on the block and still have a lot to prove compared to some coins that have been trading for a couple of years now. Only time will tell if they become a competitor to ETH. The only way I see them out performing ETH is if the ICO craze move over to Tezo's and projects start doing their fundraising on their network.
Thanks for reading and as always keep steemin!!!
I know it sounds nuts, but Tezos will be top 10 crypto. You have to keep in mind, that most of these projects that dominate the top 10, didn't have 230 million worth of capital at their disposal. There is virtually no reason for Tezos to fail. The more tokens that are issued/created increases decentralization and widespread distribution. In fact, one should look at EOS, as a more comparable measure. That ICO, is going to issue 1 billion tokens. Yup you heard me correctly, 1 billion. That's 400 million extra, and they have flirted with a post 3x ICO price.
Granted ETH and the market are going through a correction, but my estimate is Tezos will trade above a dollar, and most likely below $2, unless bitcoin somehow blows past 5k+. Then I can see Tezos easily in the $4-$5 dollar range.
Yea I think your right. That is a lot of money to start a network. If ICO's start to get created on Tezos the that will really drive the price up.
Yeah, I saw the futures on HITBTC, granted they are trading IOU's, are roughly going for 0.75 cents. I know it's not 600 million coins in the wild at once, but it could be a fair indicator. If BTC is ~$1900 and Tezos is ~0.75 cents, when BTC will breach $3800, Tezos will be flirting with the 1.50-$2 range. This is without any dapp development :P
So yeah, I am stoked. Just 4-6 months until we know for sure!
Now that the market is more liquid, we have Ethereum with a 106 billion dollar marketcap (and growing), the likes of Cardano trading at a $26 billion dollar marketcap and Neo at 4 billion. Given that Tezo's will not have issues with slow transaction times or bottlenecking, and the additional features being pumped into Tezos, I see no reason why Tezos shouldn't start trading at at least $10, and as high as $20 right off the bat. Keep in mind that I am writing this 6 months after you published this piece, and the marketcap of all crypt is around $822 billion dollars. The value of the Bitcoin and Ethereum investors pumped into the Tezo's ICO now amounts to well over ONE BILLION DOLLARS!
The only limiting factor may end up being ICON (ICX) which will launch their mainnet on January 24th, about 3 weeks from now. ICX is a popular Korean blockchain company and most of the Koreans are aware of the ICON name. They have partnerships with Hospitals, 3 of the top Universities in Korea, Insurance Firms and many more. ICX also created TheLoop. And finally, the creator of ICX also founded the largest Korean exchange (one of the largest world-wide in terms of trade volume). So ICON will most likely explode upwards now through February, becoming a top 10 crypto (it broke into the top 20 today). I havent done a side by side comparison to Tezo's, but if anyone has that knowledge, please share. I think ICX will give Ethereum a run for their money (Ethereum can't even handle a stupid Kitty App without becoming overloaded). ICX does not have these issues.
Looking forward with Tezos!
Did you buy any?
Sorry that its not looking good, but this was exactly why I passed on Tezos. Uncapped ICO = Death
Yea we will have to see. Etherurm didn't have a cap but the crypto mania was not going on at the moment.
thank for the update but current market situation volatile @alao hope its does'nt effect
Yea we will have to see where the market is 4 months from now. I think the mania will probably wear off
@alao I struggled greatly as to whether to throw some scrill at the project. I had some serious FOMO moments, but ultimately the hype around it (and how quickly it raised so much in an uncapped ICO) is ultimately why I decided against it. If it is a true competitor to ETH, there will be an opportunity to get in at another price point that yields a significant return.
Maybe I was totally wrong on this one, and only time will tell.
Yea my arm was pretty much twisted to get i this ICO... I normally wait until stuff starts getting traded before hopping on the train but I showed this to a friend of mine some months back and he was eager to participate. I didn't invest to much into it but if it does take off i'll be happy. They have long way to go before they "provide value"
The amount raised is absurd thb....
Yea it's a lot over half a billion dollars. we will see how this plays out...