The problem is there is no model for any of this. When you try to compare it to stock, the analogy fails. It's not like fiat, or commodities. No one knows how high or low any of these cryptos can get. There's no ceiling and no floor, and so little history to predict. It's a gamble, cryptos can make us all millionaires or send us packing to the nearest burger shop.

Hodling long term is probably the safest. I've been trading a tad bit of "lunch money" and I'm still borderline panicking at times. All of my trades have made me money, but if I would have hodled instead of trading, I would have made more money. Happens almost every time I make a trade, I usually regret it a few days after.

In general I found there's guaranteed way to make money right now, not sure how long this will be true. By shortly after bad news hits, and sell when there hasn't been any bad news for a little while. The market is scared shitless of losing their pants, so they panic buy and sell all the time.