May 26
Nothing has changed since my previous update, price is still moving sideways. Yesterday it looked like Bitcoin -2.31% was slipping and would make another drop but there were some buyers who pushed the price back into the triangle again. In one of my previous updates, i mentioned that i was thinking about 2 options. A bear flag , which would mean the price has to go towards 7700/7800 first and than drop again or that we just drop from that point on. Since then we have been moving up and down and making a bigger triangle (something it has done more often!). I remember from the last time (yellow cricle) i was short from the 8900 (don't remember exactly) and i closed around the 8000/8200 i think because i thought the price would make a correction. It dropped even more and during that 'yellow' phase i was waiting for 8200ish to go short again. There were several attempts to push higher but eventually it did not become a flag but a triangle. So i missed the whole ride down that time.
That's not the point, it's always better to miss out on an opportunity than to trade a loosing one. For your mindset it's still no fun to miss a trade you had seen coming but missed completely. But it's ten times better to jump into a trade because of FOMO and you start to loose. It damages your confidence much MUCH more, while missing a good trade maybe even builds your confidence. And trust me on this, loosing confidence in trading is a bigger loss than a standard loosing trade. Trading is for the long run, just like online poker has been the last 10 years as well. You want to become more stable and loosing confidence could destroy that if you can't get it back again.
Anyway, i think we are at a similar situation now. In the chart you can see 3 different lines/scenario's of what i think are most probably to happen. I am still quite sure that we have not seen the end of this drop. So the blue line is less likely for me. The green and red are the ones i think will happen. I really can't say which one it will be, meaning if we start to drop now or make another move up towards the 7800 first. That's why i have decided to go short with half now (7550) and add around the 7650/7750. So both trades are 1 position together in size, so not 2! But as always during weekends, predicting what will happen is much more difficult. We usually go sideways during weekends with some exceptions of course, so day trading this action (small rides) is very difficult!
Several Alts have still not reached their targets yet and there is nor reason yet to say that they won't reach them. I think only a break of around 8000 could change things. I talked about a very bearish scenario the last week or 2 and since some followers said that i should just say things like i used to say when my follower numbers were much lower i decided not to sugarcoat my thoughts. So what i said was that if the 8000/7800 will break that we will probably drop to 7000ish. And i was almost quite certain that if we would reach that target we would drop even more. And if the 7000/7200 breaks i only give it a 25% chance that the 6000/6500 will hold. So far still no reason for me to change that though.
Don't forget to like if you still appreciate what i am doing here :)
