The Inevitable collapse
Introduction
hello and good morning to everyone in the hive community. Although not many people know me I think it's time to change that. I have an excess of free time to keep up with the markets, so I have decided to start doing market updates in terms of what I see. Keep in mind that I am by no means a TA expert I am simply sharing my take and opinion on the overall markets. This way I can force myself to continue growing and learning and share my journey as a journal of sorts. Learn from my mistakes and don't do as I say because you'll probably lose all your money.
This is the furthest thing from financial advice. It is and always will be simply my opinion. Please DYOR.
Crypto Market Overview
Firstly let's talk a bit about the overall market sentiment and situation. There's simply one thing to say and that is that everyone is down bad, no matter if you've invested in crypto or not everyone is starting to realise how bad the global situation is. If you're invested in the stock market your down bad, maybe not as bad as crypto but your down bad. If you stuck to cash then you haven't exactly escaped the issues in the local and global economy as we experience global hyperinflation due to the bail-outs for the recent shutdown. It's gotten so bad that we've seen an interest rate hike by the Swiss central bank for the first time in 15 years. There is now a global movement to fight off self-inflicted inflation. All of these macro factors have led to a perfect storm which has led to the price decline of bitcoin.
However, we can't discount the obvious warning signs on the charts that were missed. For example in the image above we can see that on the weekly BTC formed a double top in the longer term and even more warning is shown again on the weekly. As you can see below we also formed a head and shoulders. Although not a perfect one it shows us that as soon as we broke the neckline at around 36k we should have known that there was going to be a lot of pain ahead but everyone was holding out hope.
The moon boys wanted to hold out and wait for the blow-off top. A blow-off top that never came. I was one of those people. At this point, I hadn't learnt nearly enough about TA to recognise the issues that we were about to face in crypto. Now I've decided to throw myself head first into charting and technical analysis. So join me on my journey as I try to improve my TA day by day.
BTC 4H
Personally due to the larger macro-economic factors, the overall bear sentiment in the market with no end in sight and the insane volatility in the market as well as my aim to create an update every day I will be breaking down my understanding and analysis of the 4H chart rather than the daily or weekly unless I see something of note and then I will draw that to everyone's attention.
After printing the abandoned baby which signalled a somewhat local bottom we had a nice move up of 9% which was a bullish engulfing candle, then we seemed to print a hangman although that hasn't been proven yet as we seem to be hovering around 19.6k and holding that area, we do also see a bullish macd cross and a move up by the rsi. If we manage to break above 19.8k I can see us heading for the 34 EMA at 20.7k-21k before rejecting and continuing down however that hangman worries me and I feel that it is far more likely that we will break the shorter-term triangle that we are forming on the 15m followed by a move back down below 19k and potentially even 18k. We will find out tomorrow what the next few candles will do.
BTC dominance
Moving onto BTC.D, the dominance of BTC in relation to the rest of the market.
As we can see the dominance has been on a downtrend for a while now but were starting to see what looks to be a little move up, again we have a bullish macd cross as well as a little move up by the rsi however we rejected on the trend line. We can see this in the alts as they have all been hit quite hard being down almost 90% from their ATH but seeming to be holding up in comparison to BTC in terms of performance after and during the dump. I would expect BTC dominance to continue moving down unless we break this downtrend.
ALTS
Personally, I am the furthest thing from a BTC maxi, I understand the need for BTC and I will always recommend that people aim to accumulate BTC for the longer term but since I'm a degen and not flushed for cash right now instead I am focusing on trading ALTs in the shorter term. Each time I will cover one alt, as well as update what happened with the previous alt from the day before.
Right now I'm looking at and trading AVAX most of the time. we've just had a break of this over 9 days down trend with a 42% move down after testing the longer term trend, I think we might be heading back to test this longer term downtrend after we can see the bullish momentum both on the rsi and the macd which has just crossed. I will also be waiting for a short entry at this longer-term trend as I'm pretty certain that there will be a rejection and a move lower down.
Conclusion
This is most definitely a bear market there is no way around it, we may have a temporary relief bounce but that's all it is a relief bounce. In the longer term, we have nowhere to go but down. But this doesn't mean that there aren't opportunities in the space you just have to know when and where to look, but above all else, it's no longer about making a ton of profits or growing your wealth quickly right now due to global factors it is far more about protecting the wealth you already have.
