Excellent post. Detailed and articulate. I disagree with some of the probability calculations, but they are fair.
It's unfortunate to see the Ethereum community splintering. I know ETC will always survive driven by miners and purists, but we need to rally around ETH. It's an awesome platform that has even wider possibilities than Bitcoin.
I still believe ETC is going to crash in the coming days and stabilise at around 0.001. But the propaganda is getting out of hand, so who knows?
The division hurts everyone imo. An ETCer who went all ETC, can now swap back into ETH and have tripled their ETH stake or more and be on the chain that has price, hashing, and network effect dominance. Seems rational to do that but we'll see. People are emotional.
The entire thing has been brought around by fearmongering, FUD basically. People have panicked into division. The fear is of course spread by a greedy few who saw the opportunity for free money - probably rallied by the DAO attacker to begin with. Sadly, it has gone mainstream. I just hope it stabilizes at the 0.001 price and ETH can gain back its support.