Securities markets vs. Cryptomoney Markets: Weekly Performance Review, Feb. 10 – 16

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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.

Equity and cryptomoney markets recovered together last week as each recovered previous losses. Investors will continue to watch for signs of inflation and rising rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield has been leading the world's highest global rates, peaking last week at 2.93 in four years. For now, however, it appears that the initial concerns have been allayed. The dollar is falling against most assets, which seems to be helping stocks. All the main stock markets that followed were positive, with India's weakest BSE Sensex rising by only 0.015%.

Much of Asia was closed last Friday due to the Chinese New Year, but Hang Seng was able to complete his four-day trading week with an advance of 5.4% to finish at 31,115.40, while Shanghai Composite was 2.2% to finish at 3,199.16. In Japan, the director of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Kuroda announced that he would stay for another term that was thought to support the continuation of loose monetary policies. This was seen positively by the market with the Nikkei 225 advancing 1.6% during the week to finish at 21,720.25.

The S&P 500 advanced during each of the last six days (due to a stagnation or setback). That alone should give the investor a pause, as the odds now favor a downturn or at least a short break. U. S. financial markets close on Monday for an official holiday and bank holiday. This may affect liquidity in the global markets approaching the week.

The German DAX Index
The DAX found support at 13.003.4 two weeks ago, where it completed an 88.6% decline in Fibonacci from the previous rally and was 11.7% of its record high of 13.596.90 a month ago. That low support level also hovered around an all-time low since August last year at 11,868.80, with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in clearly oversold territory. The RSI was the best-selling since August 2015. This means that the upward trend structure, with high oscillations and low oscillations and higher oscillations, has been maintained, at least until now. Therefore, a decent recovery could soon follow. It also means that the August minimum is a critical support and a breach below it puts the largest bullish trend at risk of a deeper corrective phase.

S&P 500 Index (SPX)
The S&P 500 index peaked at 2,872.87 four weeks ago. That peak was followed by a 2,532.69 cascade drop in support reached two weeks ago. Support was observed at the 200-day moving average (purple line) and 61.8% Fibonacci retraction level. It is not surprising that the price has been rejected with conviction from line 200, as it is a significant moving average, and the first time it approaches in a while, it will often be reversed or at least maintain a decline. November 2016 was the last time the 200-day moving average was approached as a support. Subsequently, the index rose to 8.7% from last week's high of 2,754.42 percentage points.

The SPX has climbed six days in a row and is now expected to retreat. The RSI has been floating in the over-sold territory on the downside and has been rising since then, which is bullish. Note the nature of last week's 2,754.42 recovery, along with the volatility that accompanies it, to see the signs of what will follow. Key support from two weeks ago is well known. A fall below is bearish. Otherwise, the likelihood of a sustained long-term upward trend remains.

Criptomonedas: High performance in general
Large-cap crypto coins continued to advance from their lows of two weeks ago. A positive development for the industry as a whole was the launch of Coinbase Commerce last week, which will facilitate payment to retailers in cryptomoney, including Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin.

Litecoin led the way in crypts by raising $64.14 or 39.1% to $228.24. A couple of developments seem to be driving the advance, including a planned fork in Litecoin Cash and the announcement that LitePay, a commercial payment processing application for cryptomoney will be launched on February 26th.

XRP, Ripple's cryptomoney was second-best player of the week.