US COVID Update (03-05-2020)

Mostly kind of quiet on the actual virus front.

Weekend stats are always a bit odd, but new cases were down 3000 and new deaths were down 500+. 30 states either had NO new deaths or fewer than 10. Those states pretty much have no need for a hard lockdown. Limit visits to nursing homes especially, and 'quarantine' and care for the vulnerable separately while everyone else is asked to act like adult and continue reasonable social distancing, good health habits, and rational behavior. I've found in decades of teaching college students tend to live up to good and reasonable standards when the standards and down to standards that don't hold them accountable in any way. So . . .

Of the states with lots of cases, NY, NJ, IL had increases of new cases -- 700, 1200 (NJ's reporting still sucks), and 550 -- but all had decreases in new deaths. Probably they're finding new mid cases. And all three are on the downside of new deaths on the MA 7 day scale.

Border states VA and KY, and Kansas had modest increases above 100 but VA and KY had increases in new deaths of only 9 and 5 while Kansas had a decrease. Again, their MA curve in new deaths is still on the down side.

States in the top 25 for total cases overwhelmingly had many fewer cases and double digit decrease in new deaths.

The 7 day MA shows overall that both new cases and new deaths are declining steadily in a linear fashion. That is a bit surprising in new cases because we really should be seeing, I think, an increase in new cases as more testing finds more new mild cases. It is not obvious that that is happening. At least not yet.

It may be that :

1. Social distancing works and/or
2. The virus is not as easily transmissible as thought.

Please remember: the probability of an infected person infecting a non-infected person is the multiplication of several variables :

1. Actual contact or distance between them.
2. Time spent within that contact.
3. Viral shedding amount of the infected individual (it turns out that those with BMI >30 shed a lot more).
4. Viral 'load' required for an average individual to 'catch' the virus.
5. Other vulnerabilities and comorbidities of the non-infected individual.

If we consider those 5 things some conclusions should become apparent.

1. It is no 'accident' that the heaviest outbreaks and rate of death have happened in nursing homes. Some reports show that around 50% of deaths in NYC area, Detroit, and Chicago happened wither in nursing homes or among those transported from nursing home to hospitals. FL, whose governor shut down visits to nursing homes before there were even 100 deaths in the US has way fewer deaths by any measure compared to NYC, where the governor forced nursing homes to take confirmed cases back into their units (instead of, perhaps having them transferred to 4 army field hospitals, the Navy hospital ship, or the Samaritan's Purse field hospital ALL of which were prepared to take non-ventilator cases).

2. Keeping multi-generational families locked down in small homes almost certainly was a bad idea. Probably even keeping large families locked in close, more-or-less continuous, contact was very probably a bad idea.

3. Continuing to run crowded mass transit was certainly a bad idea.

4. Quarantining specific vulnerable individuals is a very good idea.

5. Being careful of potential "super spreaders" (and we can guess at many of them) and possibly quarantining them probably would have been a good idea.

What to do now? Pay attention to what we actually know instead of 'models' that haven't been very correct as we open up again is paramount. Quit pretending that we can alter human behavior much more than what is happening now. A substantial minority is fed up with being locked down and is really unlikely to "follow the rules" (especially when they think the rules are stupid, or don't apply to the elites, or are arbitrarily enforced, or . . .) any longer. See videos from NY, CA, Chicago, etc and see how trying to force people is working. Not well. The "leadership" of Gov Newsom, and Mayors Lightfoot and DeBlasio is . . . well . . . not up to, say, George Patton levels.

So. Opening is happening today in several states. Any effect, good or bad won't really be seen for at least 10-14 days. I'll be watching the data, not the speechifying. Especially not of "my" governor who went on national TV yesterday and called people who resist her petty tyranny racists and bigots. Way to prepare for the future compromises you'll have to make, Gov WHitlermer!!

As always, lets not forget this is still a serious situation. Practice good health habits. Take care of yourself, your family, and your neighbors (and use the Oxford comma). Don't let the hysterical types cause you to panic. I'll continue to assume you're all adults and will make good decisions.