区块链是由一系列技术实现的全新去中心化经济组织模式,2009年诞生于比特币系统的构建,2017年成为全球经济热点,但区块链的成功应用寥寥,这个新兴产业还远未成熟。为方便理解区块链的历史与趋势,可将其发展划分为六个阶段。
Block chain is a series of new technology to realize decentralized economic organization mode, was born in 2009 on the construction of the currency system, is becoming a hot spot in the global economy in 2017, but the successful application of chain blocks, the emerging industry is far from mature.
In order to understand the history and trend of blockchain, it can be divided into six stages.
技术实验阶段(2007—2009)。化名中本聪的比特币创始人从2007年开始探索用一系列技术创造一种新的货币——比特币,2008年10月31日发布了《比特币白皮书》,2009年1月3日比特币系统开始运行。支撑比特币体系的主要技术包括哈希函数、分布式账本、区块链、非对称加密、工作量证明,这些技术构成了区块链的最初版本。从2007年到2009年底,比特币都处在一个极少数人参与的技术实验阶段,相关商业活动还未真正开始。
Technology experimental stage (2007 2009), alias in the power of the currency from 2007 the founder began to explore with a series of technology to create a new currency COINS, on October 31, 2008, issued a white paper on the currency, on January 3, 2009 COINS systems to support the currency system of main technology including asymmetric encryption hash function distributed book block chain workload that constitutes the chain blocks in the original version of the technology From 2007 to the end of 2007, the currency are in a very few people to participate in technical experimental stage, the relevant business has yet to start
极客小众阶段(2010-2012)。2010年2月6日诞生了第一个比特币交易所,5月22日有人用10000个比特币购买了2个披萨。2010年7月17日著名比特币交易所Mt.gox成立,这标志着比特币真正进入了市场。尽管如此,能够了解到比特币,从而进入市场中参与比特币买卖主要是狂热于互联网技术的极客们。他们在Bitcointalk.org论坛上讨论比特币技术,在自己的电脑上挖矿获得比特币,在Mt.gox上买卖比特币。仅仅4年后,这些技术宅中的一些人成了亿万富翁和区块链传奇。
Geeks niche phase (2010-2012) was born on February 6, 2010 the first currency exchange, May 22, someone with 10000 COINS to buy the two pizza on July 17, 2010, the currency exchange famous Mt. Bigger, it marks the COINS into the market In spite of this, to understand the COINS, currency trading is mainly involved to enter the market mania in Internet technology geeks they discuss on Bitcointalk.org BBS COINS technology, on their own computers to dig for COINS, in Mt. Buy and sell currency on a bigger just four years later, some of these technology curtilage became a billionaire and chain blocks
市场酝酿阶段(2013-2015)。2013年初比特币价格13美元,3月18日金融危机中的塞浦路斯政府关闭银行和股市,推动比特币价格飙升,4月最高至266美元。8月20日德国政府确认比特币的货币地位。10月14日中国百度宣布开通比特币支付。11月美国参议院听证会明确了比特币的合法性。11月19日比特币达到1242美元新高!然而,此时区块链进入主流社会经济的基础仍不具备,价格飙升包含了过于乐观的预期。中国银行体系遏制、Mt.Gox的倒闭等事件触发大熊市,比特币价格持续下跌,2015年初一度至200美元以下,许多企业倒闭,不过经历严冬活下来的企业的确更加强壮了。无论如何在这个阶段,大众开始了解比特币和区块链,尽管还不能普遍认同。
Market incubation stage (2013-2015)
The government shut down Banks and stock markets in the financial crisis on March 18, pushing the price of bitcoin soaring to $266 in April.
On August 20th the German government confirmed the currency status of bitcoin.
On October 14, China's baidu announced the opening of bitcoin payments.
The senate confirmation hearings in November defined bitcoin's legitimacy.
On November 19, bitcoin hit a new high of $1242!
At this point, however, the blockchain's entry into the mainstream socio-economic base is still lacking, and the price surge contains overly optimistic expectations.
China's banking system to curb, Mt. Bigger trigger events such as the collapse of the bear market, currency prices continue to fall, once below $200 at the beginning of 2015, many business failures, but experience winter surviving enterprises is more stronger.
At this stage, however, the public began to understand bitcoin and the blockchain, though not universally.
进入主流阶段(2016-2018)。以2016年6月23日英国脱欧,2016年9月朝鲜第五次核试验,2016年11月9日特朗普当选等事件为标志,世界主流经济不确定性增强,具有避险功能从而与主流经济呈现替代关系的比特币开始复苏,市场需求增大,交易规模快速扩张,开启了2016-2017牛市。尽管中国市场受到政策的严厉遏制,但韩国、日本、拉美等市场快速升温,比特币价格从2016年初的400美元最高飙升至2017年底的20000美元,翻了50倍。比特币的造富效应,以及比特币网络拥堵造成的交易溢出带动了其他虚拟货币以及各种区块链应用的大爆发,出现众多百倍、千倍甚至万倍增殖的区块链资产,引发全球疯狂追捧。使比特币和区块链彻底进入了全球视野。芝加哥商品交易所上线比特币期货交易标志着比特币正式进入主流投资品行列。
Enter the mainstream stage (2016-2018).
On June 23, 2016 the British European, north Korea's fifth test in September 2016, November 9, 2016 elected trump events such as marked, enhanced the world mainstream economic uncertainty, has the function of safety with the mainstream economic present trade-off COINS began to recover, market demand, trade scale rapid expansion, opened a 2016-2017 bull market.
Although Chinese market severely curb by policy, South Korea, Japan, Latin American markets such as rapid heating up, the currency price from $2016 in early 2016 the highest surge to $2017 at the end of 20000, over 50 times.
The wealth effect of the currency and the currency trading network congestion caused by the overflow, and so did the other virtual currencies as well as the application of various block chain explosion, appear many one hundred times, one thousand times or even ten thousand times the proliferation of block chain assets, prompting wildly popular around the world.
The bitcoins and blockchains have entered the global horizon.
The Chicago mercantile exchange's online bitcoin futures trade marks the official entry of bitcoin into mainstream investment.
产业落地阶段(约2019-2021) 在市场狂乱之后,2018年的虚拟货币和区块链会在市场 监管 认知等各方面进行调整,回归理性 2017年造富效应和区块链理想造就的众多区块链项目中,大部分会随着市场的降温而消亡,小部分会坚持下来继续推进区块链的落地 2019年这些项目将会初步落地,但仍需要几年时间接受市场的检验,这就是一个快速试错过程,企业产品的更迭和产业内企业的更迭都会比较快 到2021年,在区块链适宜的主要行业领域应该会有一些企业稳步发展起来 加密货币也会得到较广泛应用
Industry landing stage (2019-2019) after the market frenzy, 2018 virtual currency and chain blocks in market regulation, cognitive and so on various aspects adjustment, return to rational wealth effect and chain block 2017 of ideals make many block chain project, most will be eliminated with the cooling of the market, a few can insist on down we will continue to be born in 2019, the project of block chain will fall to the ground, but still need to accept the inspection from the market a few years time, this is a rapid process of trial and error, change of enterprise products and enterprises in the industry change will be faster to 2021, the main industry segments in the chain of blocks suitable there should be some enterprises have been developing steadily up encryption currency will be more widely used
产业成熟阶段(约2022-2025)。各种区块链项目落地见效之后,会进入激烈而快速的市场竞争和产业整合阶段,三五年内形成一些行业龙头,完成市场划分,区块链产业格局基本形成,相关法律法规基本健全,区块链对社会经济各领域的推动作用快速显现,加密货币将成为主流货币,经济理论会出现重大调整,社会政治文化也将发生相应变化,国际政治经济关系出现重大调整,区块链在全球范围内对人们的生活产生广泛而深刻的影响。
Industrial maturity stage (about 2022-2025).
Various block chain project be born after work, will enter the competition and rapid market and industry consolidation stage, form some industry leading three to five years, complete market segmentation, block chain industry pattern basic formation, basic perfect relevant laws and regulations, block chain effect on social economy in various fields to promote the rapid, encryption will become the mainstream monetary currency, economic theory will be a major adjustment, there will be corresponding changes in social and political culture, a significant adjustment in international political and economic relations, block chain worldwide extensive and profound influence on people's lives.
区块链的这六个发展阶段还可以再简化一下,前两个阶段可以看做技术试验阶段,中间两个阶段是主流认知阶段,后两个阶段是产业实现阶段。我们当前仍处在社会认知广度已经足够,但认知深度尚嫌不足的时期。需要深入推进区块链知识的研究和普及,为产业发展成熟奠定基础。无论如何,区块链对全球经济的巨大价值已经被充分认识到了,对于全球社会政治生态改善的价值也在逐步显现,这是一个值得各国大力投入、抢占先机的社会经济新动力。
Block chain of the six stages of development can also simplify again, the first two stages can be as technology experimental stage, two stages is the mainstream among cognitive stage, after the two stages is the implementation phase of the industry We currently still in the social cognitive breadth is enough, but it is not enough depth of cognition Need to further promote the block chain research and popularization of knowledge, mature lay a foundation for industry development Anyway, chain blocks of the great value of the global economy has been fully realized, for the value of global social and political ecological improvement are also gradually revealed, it is worth a national efforts on social and economic momentum ahead