转 https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171023/china-xi-jinping-datong
在“煤都”大同，习近平的“中国梦”难以兑现
储百亮
2017年10月23日
中国大同——乍看起来，中国北方的煤炭城市大同展示着充满希望的迹象，这座城市在上演着中国国家主席习近平向全国承诺新“中国梦”时想象的变化。
一排排熠熠生辉的太阳能电池板如雨后春笋般出现在被采矿毁掉的农田上。约7.4万名村民正在被搬迁到新建的公寓里。一项清理政府的行动已导致几名市级官员被捕，他们靠吃回扣发了财。
上周在北京开幕的共产党代表大会上，同时也是中共领导人的习近平作了确定政务轻重缓急的报告，他在报告中提出了一个新梦想：中国将更环保、更繁荣、更公平地分享其日益增长的财富所带来的好处。这个未来美好愿景的目标是解决30年高速增长所造成的社会弊病：受污染的天空和水体、根深蒂固的腐败，以及日益严重的不平等。
要想获得成功，习近平的中国梦必须在农村、以及像大同这样的衰败落后地区生根，中国近14亿人口的大部分仍生活在这些地区。但是，在这个从前的中国煤炭行业之都，从当地人嘴里听到的是，热闹的建筑景象掩盖了习近平的光明承诺与他们的艰苦现实之间的明显脱节。
虽然中国整体经济最近的增长率仍令人赞叹，但这里的工人和农民说，他们的生活一直没有以同样的速度改善。尽管习近平承诺要建立一个更清洁、更积极响应民众的政府，但这里的工人和农民抱怨说，地方官员仍对他们不予理睬，或粗暴地践踏他们的生活。
最重要的是，他们说，习近平的中国梦还没有兑现为他们最为需要的东西：更好的工作、医疗服务的改善，以及负担得起的住房。
在这里的采访中多次听到同样的说法：“习近平很不错，但是……”
“习近平是很不错的国家主席，但是他的政策没有在这里得到实施，”住在大同荣华皂村的胡文祥（音）说。
由于在地下挖煤，这里的土地出现下沉，变得不稳定，政府正在把居民从他们的土地上搬到远离煤矿的地方，作为这个项目的一部分，胡文祥所在的村庄大部分已被夷为平地。但胡文祥拒绝离开。她说，搬到大同市区的一个新公寓里去，将会让她失去来自帮助儿子饲养山羊的收入。
她拒绝了当地政府开发农村的“一刀切”的做法，这让她不得不在一个即将消失的村子里自谋生路。她说，那些从强制搬迁中得到最大好处的人，似乎是下令搬迁的官员和盖新公寓的建筑公司。
“政府的政策听起来不错，但我们得不到好处，”胡文祥说。“为什么政府各处发钱，就是不发给我们呢？”胡文祥60出头，个子瘦瘦的，有着一张被太阳晒黑的脸。
中国各地如果没有上千座的话，也至少有几百座像大同这样的工业城镇，这些地方的生活仍保持在与习近平承诺的“小康”相去甚远的水平。
专家们说，来自中国各省份的草根阶层的不满，不会对习近平和共产党构成紧迫的威胁。但他们警告说，习近平让人们的预期升高，存在着风险。
他现在必须兑现一种新的社会契约，通过让中国变得更公平、有更有效的管理，来换取公众对党的统治的继续接受。
“党的合法性的根源不再与经济增长的速度紧密相连，习近平已经认识到了这一点，”北京的政治学者吴强说。“他想给社会提供一笔交易。中共不会容忍反对派或公民社会，也不会容忍民主和自由的要求；中共将提供更加平衡的发展。但仅仅这样做对政府来说也是一个巨大的转变。”
习近平自从五年前上台起就开始宣扬他的梦想，虽然他把自己早期精力的大部分集中在了反腐败问题上。在包括大同在内的山西省，调查人员逮捕的腐败干部人数之多，以至于中央政府已将宣布该省发生了“塌方式严重腐败”。
然而，即使在第一个任期内，习近平也已认识到，他必须提供比反腐败更多的东西。2013年，他列出了60项改革承诺，他说这些承诺将使中国更环保、更安全、更公平、更繁荣。人们认为他的政府在兑现某些承诺上有功劳，比如加强了污染控制，关闭了多余的煤矿和工厂，这些工矿企业已经造成了生产过剩。
在为十九大做准备工作期间，这些成就在电视台上，在讲话、社论和展览中受到赞誉。随着习近平第二任期的开始，专家们说，公众似乎仍然愿意给他一个让他能兑现更多承诺的机会。
但是，如果事实证明习近平无法兑现承诺的话，这种情况可能会发生改变。专家们说，习近平面临着一场艰苦的战斗。
虽然关闭过时的工厂和矿山可能会提高经济效率，但代价是失去的就业机会，这就带来了动荡的风险。中国日益成熟的经济增速放缓，使政府在加大医疗和教育开支上的难度加大。
“到目前为止，中央政府一直很善于做出承诺和保证，但随后将责任转嫁给地方政府，”乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)的布鲁斯·J·迪克森(Bruce J. Dickson)教授说。他的书《独裁者的困境》(The Dictator’s Dilemma)分析了中国共产党是如何继续执政的。
“到了某个时候，你只是追究腐败的人是不够的。你必须干点什么，”迪克森说。“问题是，干什么。”
习近平上周三在十九大开幕式上的讲话中警告说，中国共产党必须在解决社会不满方面有所改善。
“中国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾，”习近平在北京人民大会堂对代表们说。
但在大同这个有340万人口、包括城市中心、周边矿区和农村的广大地区，当地人说官方的做法常常会产生新的问题。他们说，当地官员用严厉的方式实施来自首都指令的做法，可能会让当地人受到伤害。而且，即使反腐运动仍在进行，但能从这些变化中获益最多的是官员，而不是老百姓。
“我已经没有房子了，”位于大同一个废弃煤矿附近的小窑头村的一位妇女说。她不愿透露自己的姓名，害怕跟记者说话会给她带来麻烦。她靠在自己被拆除的村子里捡砖头卖挣点钱，她说她的家是今年4月被拆掉的。
“我的村里还剩了几间房子，”她说。“那是留给政府官员住的。不让我们住那些房子。”
在大同，不正常的感觉尤为严重。
这座城市曾因其古老的佛教岩雕而闻名，后来，随着对隐藏在地下的能源的需求与上个世纪80年代中国制造业的突飞猛进一起增长，大同成了中国的煤炭之都。10年之后，在最高产量的时候，大同曾贡献过中国煤炭的7.5%。这种发展导致了一段较长时期的繁荣，造就了一群有钱的矿主和官员。
这一切都在三年前结束了，煤炭需求的下降导致了矿场停产、矿工无事可做。随着煤炭产量下降，这座城市陷入了困境。大同也在艰难地应对依赖煤炭所造成的环境负担，包括雾霾、受污染的土壤，以及正在下沉的大片农田，这是农田下面的煤矿在坍塌所导致的。
在大同的一个仍在运营的矿场工作的童延林（音）说，工资已比以前低了很多。他现在每天只工作3到4个小时，月收入只有4700元，大约是他在经济繁荣时期挣的钱的一半。
不过，他说，如果这意味着让煤矿继续开门，让他继续被雇佣的话，他宁可拿较低的工资。
大同政府试图通过鼓励在废弃煤矿的地面上发展太阳能和风力发电场来创造新的就业机会。官员们说，尽管他们做出了努力，但去年大同的经济增长率仅为1%，远远低于全国6.7%的增长率。
新的投资，以及疯狂的城市革新，也带来了新的负担，导致地方政府负债累累。
“对山西来说，这次转变是一场深刻的革命，”山西省书记楼阳生上周四在北京的党代会上说。
当地人想知道大同能提供哪些可以取代煤炭的东西。矿工童延林嘲弄地说，这座城市还盛产一样东西：腐败。
虽然习近平下了很大的功夫，但地方官员依旧搞不正当的交易，他说：“他们能把腐败官员用火车一车皮一车皮地拉走。”
In China’s Coal Capital, Xi Jinping’s Dream Remains Elusive
DATONG, China — At first glance, the coal city of Datong in northern China displays the hopeful signs of change that President Xi Jinping had in mind when he promised his nation a new “China dream.”
Rows of shiny solar panels have mushroomed on farmland ruined by mining. Some 74,000 villagers are being moved into newly built apartments. A drive to clean up government has brought the arrest of several city officials who grew rich on kickbacks.
In an agenda-setting report at a Communist Party congress in Beijing this past week, Mr. Xi, who also leads the party, held out a new dream of a China that would become cleaner, more prosperous and fairer in sharing the benefits of its increasing wealth. This vision of a brighter future is aimed at fixing social ills created by three decades of often-breakneck growth: polluted skies and waters, deep-rooted corruption and growing inequalities.
To succeed, Mr. Xi’s China dream must take root in rural and rust-belt backwaters like Datong, where many of China’s almost 1.4 billion people still live. But to hear locals in this former capital of China’s coal industry tell it, the bustling scenes of construction mask a stark disconnect between Mr. Xi’s bright promises and their hardscrabble reality.
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While China’s overall economy has clocked dazzling growth rates, workers and farmers here say their lives have not improved nearly as quickly, if at all. Despite Mr. Xi’s promises of a cleaner and more responsive government, they complain that local officials still ignore them, or run roughshod over their lives.
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Most important, they said, Mr. Xi’s China dream had yet to deliver what they needed most: better jobs, improved health care and affordable housing.
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A former resident of Xiaoyaotou, which was razed to the ground, scavenging bricks to sell. “I don’t have a home anymore,” she said. Credit Bryan Denton for The New York Times
In interviews here, the same refrain was often repeated: “Xi Jinping is good, but. ...”
“Xi Jinping is a good president, but his policies aren’t implemented here,” said Hu Wenxiang, who lives in Ronghuazao, a village in a rural part of Datong.
Most of her village has been razed as part of a program to relocate residents away from fields where subsiding coal mines have left the earth sagging and unstable. But Ms. Hu refuses to leave. She said moving to one of the new apartments in an urban part of Datong would deprive her of her income, which comes from helping her son breed goats.
Her rejection of the local government’s one-size-fits-all approach to rural redevelopment has left her to fend for herself in a dying village. The people who benefited most from the forced relocation seemed to be the officials who ordered it, and construction companies who built the new units, she said.
“The government’s policies sound good, but we don’t see the benefits,” said Ms. Hu, a thin, sun-hardened woman in her 60s. “Why does the government hand out money here and there, but not to us?”
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of industrial towns and cities like Datong across China, where living standards remain far from the “moderate prosperity” that Mr. Xi has promised.
Experts say the grass-roots grievances in provincial China do not pose an imminent threat to Mr. Xi and the Communist Party. But they warn that there is risk as Mr. Xi raises expectations.
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He must now deliver on a new social contract that is offering a more equitable and better managed China in exchange for continued public acceptance of party rule.
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Datong is increasingly defined by its high-rise developments, as people migrate from rural areas into the city. Credit Bryan Denton for The New York Times
“The sources of party legitimacy are no longer as tightly tied to the pace of economic growth, and Xi sees that,” said Wu Qiang, a political scientist in Beijing. “He wants to offer society a deal. The party won’t tolerate opposition or civil society or calls for democracy and freedom; it will offer more balanced development. But even that’s a daunting transformation for this government.”
Mr. Xi began proclaiming his dream since taking power five years ago, though he focused much of his early efforts on battling corruption. In Shanxi, the province that includes Datong, investigators have arrested so many corrupt cadres that the national government has declared the region to be in a state of “implosive corruption.”
However, even in his first term, Mr. Xi recognized that he must offer more than just the crackdown. In 2013, he laid out a list of 60 reform commitments that he said would make China greener, safer, fairer and more prosperous. His government is credited with delivering some progress, such as toughening pollution controls and shutting down excess mines and factories that had fed a glut in production.
In the run-up to the congress, such accomplishments were celebrated in television shows, speeches, editorials and exhibitions. And as Mr. Xi begins his second term, experts say the public still seems willing to give him a chance to deliver on more of his promises.
But that could change if Mr. Xi proves unable to deliver results. And experts say Mr. Xi faces an uphill battle.
Closing outdated factories and mines may bolster economic efficiency, but at the cost of eliminating jobs, which brings the risk of unrest. The slower growth rates of China’s maturing economy have made it harder for the government to increase spending on health and education.
“So far, the central government has been really good about making promises and commitments but then passing the buck onto local governments,” said Bruce J. Dickson, a professor at George Washington University whose book, “The Dictator’s Dilemma,” examines how the Chinese Communist Party stays in power.
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The courtyard of an old residence in a district of Datong that is slated for demolition. Credit Bryan Denton for The New York Times
“At some point, you can’t simply go after corrupt people. You have to do something,” Professor Dickson said. “And the question is what.”
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In his opening speech on Wednesday to the congress, Mr. Xi warned that the party had to improve its performance at addressing social grievances.
“The principal contradiction facing society in the new era is that between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing need for a better life,” Mr. Xi told delegates in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
But in Datong, a broad area of 3.4 million people that includes an urban center and surrounding coal fields and countryside, locals say that the official fixes often create their own new problems. They said the directives from the capital were enacted in a heavy-handed manner that could hurt locals. And even with the anticorruption crackdown, local officials benefit the most from the changes, not regular people.
“I don’t have a home anymore,” said a woman in Xiaoyaotou, a village near an abandoned coal mine in Datong. She would not give her name, fearing that speaking out would get her in trouble. She made a little money scavenging and selling bricks from her demolished village, where she said her home had been torn down in April.
“There are still houses left in my village,” she said. “They are for the government officials to stay in. We are not allowed to stay in those houses.”
In Datong, the sense of dislocation is especially acute.
Famed for its ancient Buddhist rock carvings, the city became China’s coal capital as demand for the energy resources that lay beneath its surface took off along with Chinese manufacturing in the 1980s. A decade later, at peak production, Datong provided 7.5 percent of China’s coal. The result was an extended boom that created a wealthy class of mine barons and officials.
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A farmer selling leeks in one of Datong’s recently built housing developments. Rural residents have been moved into such new housing. Credit Bryan Denton for The New York Times
That ended when demand for coal slumped three years ago, leaving mines and miners idle. As production dropped, the city fell on hard times. It also struggled with the environmental burdens left from its reliance on coal, including smog, contaminated soil and entire swaths of farmland that are now sinking as the mines underneath them collapse.
“The Big Picture” reporting on coal's slow death in China. Video by CGTN
Tong Yanlin, who works in one of Datong’s still-operating mines, said wages had plummeted. He now works only three or four hours a day and earns slightly more than $700 a month, about half of what he earned in the boom years.
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Still, he said he preferred earning lower wages if it meant keeping the mine open, and himself employed.
Datong’s government has tried to create new jobs by encouraging solar and wind farms on top of exhausted coal mines. Despite their efforts, the economy grew at just 1 percent last year, officials said, much lower than the national growth rate of 6.7 percent.
The new investments, and a frenzy of urban renewal, have also created new burdens, leaving the local government heavily in debt.
“For Shanxi, this transition is a profound revolution,” the province’s Communist Party secretary, Lou Yangsheng, said at the party congress in Beijing on Thursday.
Locals wonder what Datong has to offer that could replace coal. With an ironic smile, Mr. Tong, the coal miner, said the city still had plenty of one thing: corruption.
Despite Mr. Xi’s efforts, local officials remained as crooked as ever, he said: “They could still haul away corrupt officials in one railway wagon afte
太阳能发电很难取代火力