The natural world and the factual truth does not have to agree with human logic.T Logic alone is not enough to say if something is a scientific truth. That is why we need to make experiments, to see if the theoretical conclusions agree with what is objectively observed in the factual world.
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Scientists agree the odds of all this being a result of chance are too high to compute. It is based on the evidence acquired. You are free to believe that it could all have somehow still occur, best to you.
No, you don't calculate the odds of an event after it happened. Only before.
Many of your like minded disagree with you, Sagan among them.
All past events are unique and no two events are exactly the same. So the probability of any past event is as small as you want. It is just needed that you give more and more unique caracteristics of the event.
It's about the factors required to create the event.
All past events have unique and unlikely factors that created it, without exception. And the more complex the past event, the more unlikely it will seem.