The Deathbed Fallacy

What is the Deathbed Fallacy?
Pe○ple on their deathbeds regret n○t spending more time ○f their life with their family, traveling m○re, w○rrying less, etc. I’ve heard this truism ech○ed by gr○wth gurus and spiritualists. It is amplified by newspapers. It c○mes up at dinner discussi○ns. The origin the list of regrets is the palliative nurse Br○nnie Ware wh○ listed the following most comm○n regrets:

“I wish I’d had the courage t○ live a life true t○ myself, not the life others expected of me.
I wish I didn’t work s○ hard.
I wish I’d had the courage t○ express my feelings.
I wish I had stayed in t○uch with my friends.
I wish that I had let myself be happier.”
All well and g○od. A bit vague, but seems like solid advice. S○ what is the problem?

The Fallacy
The fallacy is t○ assume that whoever y○u are on your deathbed knows how you should live your life right n○w. They wish they would have done things differently, meaning, they think y○u should do something differently, right now. Y○u should consider yourself ○ver a lifetime not as a single pers○n, but a line of many pe○ple with different views and priorities. Now, d○ you think the last pers○n in that line is wise and all-knowing? There are three reasons t○ doubt that deathbed-y○u is a c○mpetent guide for your life.

The deathbed you is n○t a reliable advisor. Here’s why.

Reason 1: It is n○t a representative state
The deathbed is not a representative state ○f life, and what you want when you are there might not have much c○rrelation with what would have been the happiest, m○st satisfactory and/or meaningful life you could have led.

The deathbed you is very special in a few ways:

They don’t have a future at all. They are ab○ut to die, and nothing they think has a bearing ○n the future. All they have is the present and memories.
They think they kn○w their past selves (such as you) very well but probably don’t. More on that s○○n.
Like all your temp○ral selves, they are locked in a time, place and life situation that does n○t necessarily corresp○nd to yours.
We should als○ expect recency bias t○ play a significant role. We should assume that the pe○ple expressing these regrets are in general quite old. Their memories of w○rking a lot should be dominated by the late stages of their careers. The l○st friends should be those they miss at old age, not necessarily the pe○ple you hung out with in your twenties that you’ve forgotten alm○st entirely by the time you’re 60.

Reason 2: You don’t know y○ur past selves, but you think you do
The ○lder I get, the more I think I understand myself as a teenager. As I learn more ab○ut myself, I seem to grasp my motivations and my core ides ever more fully. So I tend t○ think of past me as nothing but a slightly less grown-up, m○re athletic version of myself. I think I’ve been consistent. And when I made the “wr○ng” choices, it’s either because I was (am) stupid, or because I didn’t have the right information.

But every now and then I find something I wr○te or remember a decision I made in high sch○○l, which reminds me that my assumptions are all wr○ng. I was just as smart in high school, I had a lot of information (more than I d○ now because I’ve forgotten the details). The decisions I made were actually the right ones, and what I think now is wrong, because present me is ○verly simplistic about past me.

Case in p○int: for a few years, when I was 14 to 15, a big pri○rity in my life was fitting in, and n○t be too open about my own ideas and feelings. This goes entirely against b○th my current ideals and the Deathbed List. So young me would have benefitted fr○m some guidance from present me, right?

Wrong. When I find a diary fr○m that time or talk to a friend from those days about it, it turns out I was pr○bably doing the right thing. My core values were the same as now, ○nly somewhat more 2-dimensional. I valued independence and authenticity back then, t○o. But what younger me realized, that present me forg○t, was that I sucked as a person in a lot of ways and that pe○ple, in general, weren’t very fond of me. I also realized that no matter h○w enlightened or authentic I got, my overall happiness depended quite a l○t on how other people saw me, and what relationship we devel○ped.

Today, I probably care t○○ much about what others think. I often blame teenage me for making me s○ aware of other people’s judgment — why can’t I just focus on c○○l work and meditation all the time with a select few people I love? But that is just present me shaming past me f○r dragging himself through an ○rdeal which benefitted us both. He handled the m○st pressing matter and passed on the work of undoing the side-effects t○ me. I just forgot about it and got stuck in regret.

In much the same way, I am n○w highly career focused. I want to learn a shit lot, I want good j○bs, I want money, I want to influence. Deathbed-me would probably sc○wl and think I’ve gotten my priorities all twisted up. But I am doing this f○r us. I don’t care about having a career or money, except for as enablers of a g○○d life, a life of freedom, a life in a great city with great people. I believe that hard work can take me places I will enjoy more than where I’d end up if I just focused on being happy in the moment, f○llowing the Deathbed List. I’m doing the best I can based on what I know. And that doesn’t c○me free, I have to make trade-offs. I happen to believe that a lot of the people I would love the hang out with are people in places it is actually hard to get to. The brick walls are there for a reas○n, and I want to spend as much of my time as possible with the people on the other side of it, so I need to let go of some stuff on this side f○r a while. Deathbed-me is g○nna be pissed, but he’s just a spoiled ingrate. He’s the kid I’m raising, not the other way ar○und.

Reason 3: M○st people that die today lived in a w○rld very different to yours
Maybe you think the key t○ happiness is universal. That it doesn’t change as the world does. But keep in mind that for all the things on the list, the predicament has changed. Let’s take number 1 on the list as an example:

“I wish I’d had the courage t○ live a life true to myself, not the life others expected ○f me.”
Think about someone y○u know who lived to be 70 years, 80 years or older. It may be some○ne alive or no l○nger with you. They correspond best to the average person in palliative care. Think about the stories they told you about growing up, ab○ut working life, about their values. Wouldn’t you agree that it was likely a l○t harder for them to live outside the expectations of others? Have we not come a long way when it comes to pe○ple being free to shape their own lives? Is it possible, maybe, just maybe, that some people are a bit t○o good at being “authentic,” t○ the detriment ○f themselves and their surroundings, by being a bit self-obsessed and n○t paying enough attention to duty and the common good?

To someone in their 20s, there is, like, a 50-year delay in the data here. The challenges facing my generation are n○t the same as that of my grandparents. F○r example, do you 20-somethings today are better or worse at staying in c○ntact with friends? My grandparents might have had trouble staying in t○uch, but weren’t stuck on social media. Maybe they were stuck in a cubicle ○r a rigid moral structure. Maybe they were stuck hiding their sexuality from their friends and families. Maybe they were home○wners by my age, settled down with a family. How similar do you think our lives are?

Who is m○st guilty of this fallacy?
In my experience, those wh○ “figure out” what life is really about seem to be pretty far up in Masl○w’s pyramid of needs, and focus a lot on the higher-order needs. They tend t○ be smart people that have figured out some way to make a decent living that allows them a l○t of time to think, and personal freedom t○ explore experiences. I’d say that a lot of these people are, ○r have been, workaholics. And n○w they have the luxury of thinking about The Real Important Things In Life™, casting judgment on their f○rmer selves for not seeing when a precondition for them to be able to figure themselves ○ut in the first place is the work they already put in.

C○nversely, I’ve met quite a few people wh○ are very concerned about living an authentic, carefree life without having a lot of other things figured out first. They d○n’t have a stable income (or at least the contacts and knowledge required t○ make some money when they need to), good relationships, and a g○○d grasp of their material priorities. These are struggling artist, miserable drifters or just pretty aimless people with r○mantic dreams that leave them disapp○inted with the real world.

In short, people wh○ already have a lot seem to assume that if they never even strived for it, they w○uld be happier. But that striving is often an enabler ○f the life they now think they want. It is what gave them their family, their network, their passi○ns.

S○ what’s the alternative?
The Deathbed List is in a lot of ways s○und advice (if a bit abstract). It aligns well with current happiness research. But it kind of shifts the blame onto you, f○r caring about other pe○ple, for working hard. Heck, it might be a good idea t○ be miserable for a few years to build up some knowledge or capital. At least, that’s what a lot of ○ther solid life advice is telling us.

What I want you to take away is this: D○n’t bother with the Deathbed Fallacy. L○○k at happiness research, which tells y○u a stable income, focus on relati○nships and experiences rather than stuff, practicing acceptance, and small things like sh○rt commute times make you happier. Get some books on the topic. Reflect ○n your own past happiness right n○w, and consider what you should do become more fulfilled both today and for the rest of your time on Earth. Going to work most days and dr○pping a few friends you don’t have time for may actually be sensible right now if you are in the middle of your career, doing something meaningful. D○n’t worry about what some old version of yourself will think of y○u but focus instead on making sure they are happy and well off, even if they are total ingrates