Hi everyone, I hope you are all having a fantastic day wherever you are :)
I have been talking about this for the past two weeks now. I wish I could get the message to more people, especially the ones who have entered the market recently. If you have bough your crypto four months ago or earlier then your still sitting on so much profit, and even if you decide to hodle, probably you won't see losses. But In my opinion I prefer to take this opportunity to sell and then buy again when we touch bottom.
If you entered the market just recently, I'm very sorry... The reason of these posts I've been sharing is to get new investors to think about selling on a little bit of loss instead of riding it all the way down.
Of course I could be wrong but basing my opinion in technical analysis everything points at a very high probability of a long bear run. To show people why I am saying this, I did a little bit of photoshop, kind of overlaying the chart from the last 2013 bubble (blue) with the current 2017 bubble (purple). 2013 & 2017 charts are almost identical. It's been happening all over again as you can see...
Even the chart of BTC/USD from 2013's top of the bubble looks very similar with the current 2017 from last week:
Conclusion:
Based on technical & fundamental analysis I think that during this week & next week the price of Bitcoin could go as low as $2200. Then during the next week or the following after it could jump back up to $2700, this would be the last chance to sell at the highest. For every other altcoin, especially in the top 20, I'm afraid is already too late for more pumps, there will for sure be a little bit of a pumping in some random ones but in my opinion it's impossible to predict which or when. I would not trade any altcoins any more unless it's for gambling. I personally sold all my alts for Bitcoins already & If I still had some I would sell them ASAP.
The market cap could go as low as $85B this week or next week. Then during next week & the following we could pump up to $110B, which would be the last opportunity to sell at the highest.
Re-steemit if you think this message should be seen by all the people who have entered the market recently!
As always thanks for upvoting & I would love to know your opinions :)
EDIT: I believe in cryptos, specially Bitcoin, for the long term. What I meant in this post is that this could be a good opportunity to sell high & buy low when we touch bottom. And for all of those who entered late, maybe think about taking a small loss instead of riding it all the way down. I expect Bitcoin to go as low as $1200 to $1500 if history continues to repeat itself. If so, then I'm buying them all :P
Thanks for your thoughts. I hope it turns out different in 2017. Economic fundamentals aren't better nowadays.
Hey thank you very much for the comment! I have to add that the the 2013 bubble formed and bust three times faster that the 2017 one. Also it grew by 5 times during the parabolic movement and the 2017 one only three times. So the crash shouldn't be as bad, or at least the bear run shouldn't be as long as the last one.
I actually made a new post based on the 2013 patterns and the future predictions show that from here to the end of the year is not as bad as I thought initially.
very good @dobe4ever. Thanks for your opinion. I was like to have sold my eth at a high price, off the market. But what I don't understand is when you say "its the latest chance to sell at the highest". dont you think the Cryptos are still on a up trend for the coming years?
Ohh yes, yes, I should probably edit that part. Of course I believe in cryptos for the long term. I only meant that I see this as a good opportunity to sell high and then buy at the bottom. I think bitcoin will go as low as $1200 to $1500 touching bottom. This is based on the analysis above if history continues to repeat.
Yeah, I thought you meant that. I am also preparing myself to buy low and sell high during this week... fingers crossed we make a good profit out of it.
Yeah... I was going to but at this point I don't think I'm going to be buying more on this dip. Too much risk for a little trade. I will see when/if it pumps back up to $2700 I will sell the rest of it. I've been selling all my alts for bitcoin for the past 10 days & I sold 50% of my bitcoin 2 days ago. I couldn't be happier :)
Excellent analysis @dobe4ever. I fairly agree with you that a big correction is imminent and it's definitely needed especially after this huge rally since April 2017.
Good luck with rest of your BTC!
Hey cheers for this! same to you :)
Great analysis. I think a correction could be coming but maybe not as big as you are thinking depending on how the hard fork/soft fork/segwit2x issue gets resolved. I think a correcting to $1800ish will be likely before that but if it goes well back up if it goes bad back up.
Also what about comparing where we are now to December through April of this year. It looks very similar to the pattern we are seeing now. I can see a case for both scenarios but I dont think we will have the same growth we had the last 3 months. In any case I sold 60% of my btc to hedge. If we continue up I will ride with what I have left in if we go down buy back in depending on scaling of course.
Only time will tell but I hope everyone stays safe out there. Risk management is key here.
Thank you very much for your comment & very good point about the correction maybe not being as big as the last one, I actually made a new post with two possible predictions based on the 2013 bubble patterns & I found that we might not crash that low & also I see a possible flash crash sometime in august, it could have something to do with the fork/scaling issue. Check out my last post if you have time & tell me what you think about that.