Well, a lot can happen in this market. I was expecting that last month we will see bitcoin over 10k and it wouldn't go any lower, but here we are.
If things go as slow as right now, we might only see some serious moves by the end of the year. This might be a slow year for cryptos, because it seems like every single time a positive light comes out, something negative happens and it takes a big hit.
I do hope that we will start seeing some nice prices really soon like bitcoin going 12k and more, but it doesn't really seem to be likely because any kind of bad news reflect on the prices heavily. We need something huge to happen for the prices to skyrocket.
I think your view is very reasonable and tend to agree with you. Nevertheless, as I always say, I think the surprises will be to the upside and not the reverse. So even though it could be slow for awhile, it's a good time to get positioned (if you're not already) because I think the long term downside is limited if you're involved in quality crypto.