I have a quick question on your first H&S chart and its suggested target of $2800. The Head is at $17,234.99, correct?
If so, then at what price point do you have the "neckline" occurring on January 6th, the day the "head" was established?
I calculate a neckline of roughly $10,147, which would translate to a height distance of roughly 7,087 points.
Basis the height in which you've calculated, what do you then have as a price point for the "Neckline breach on Feb-2?"
I have a rough price point for said neckline breach at about $8,043...
If you concur that $8043 (or thereabouts) is where the first breach of said neckline took place, and that the originating conventional "neckline" is in the vicinity of 10,147, then the classic (potential) price target from the said breach, which would be 7,087-pts beneath the point of the breach, should imply a potential downside target of $956. Yes, or no?
8043 (neckline breach point) - 7087 pts (height of Head to Neckline) = (potential downside target of) $956.
Just wondering if I'm missing something - or what price points it is that you are using to arrive at your stated $2800 measured target.
Thanks for your patience with this question, brother.
There are different ways to measure the target. You add the height of the neckline to the point of breach and get 956 as the target which is the classic approach. That's correct, but because I have seen a lot of H&S miss this target, I measure the minimum target differently. As you can see, I just project the height in the same angle downwards which leaves me at a minimum price target of 2800. It can be exceeded easily, but the probability of a legit H&S hitting this target is higher than hitting your target of 956.
That's all about it. Just a more cautious measurement. When analysing for an audience, it is always better to have the target exceeded, than missing the target ;-)
I hear you, brother! Thanks for clarifying your position... It is always a good practice to "under promise" and "over deliver." -
For embracing that general posture - you get EXTRA ninja-level "kudos" points from me, friend!
As for the benefit of the wider audience, with a quite similar intent to inform without "over-promising" ... H&S patterns and the targets derived from such are simply "references" from which to monitor future price action. They are NOT absolute predictions as to what will indeed occur...
Looking forward to your continued assessments of the intra-day price action, brother. Thank You, man!