New lows in BTC are imminent. The last bullish count I can find will be invalid below 6400$. This invalidation could happen in the next hours or minutes, because BTC is already down to 6600$.
Here is the bullcount:
Update: It is not invalid 6400$ but 5920$, because there is a way to count wave e as a 5-3-5 which I did not see at first glance.
But here is the more likely bearcount with 3 possible support zones to end the downtrend:
Those support zones are 5400$, 4850$ and 3550$. So the buy zone is between 5400$ and 3550$ BTC.
Keep in mind that BTC is very close to producing a death cross, which happens when the 50 dma crosses the 200 dma from above:
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In this picture I projected the breakout from this channel to the downside. (for symmetrical reasons)
.png)
If you think this to be useful information:
Feel free to use and share my charts, but please mention me, @ew-and-patterns as the author. Otherwise it is considered plagiarism and I will flag you and advise my friends to do the same.
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DISCLAIMER: This post / analysis serves general information purposes only. I am not, and never will be a financial adviser. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way I see the charts and what my trading ideas (from my personal experiences) are. I use chart pattern and Elliott Wave analysis for my trading ideas.
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Have a nice day :-)
Thanks for the update - I was very interested to read about your opinion on current moves.
One question: you mentioned the death cross. The death cross happened already on the 50/200 MA - you are mentioning the dma. Can you give me some background why your are solely focusing on the dma? As I understand the dma concept the "D" stands for "displaced" and how much the dma is "displaced" is an individual choice. So I am wondering - is the a commonly valid death cross on a dma?
I am no expert at all - so feel free to correct me if I mixed up things. I am happy to learn from you.
Never heard of a displaced moving average^^ to be honest. The way I meant it is daily moving average. The moving average on daily chart basis.
Yes the death cross happened today. This pic is from two days ago. In this case I used the exponential moving average (EMA), because it is the standard setting in most of my charting programs.
Using other moving averages than the EMA (like DEMA, TEMA, WMA, SMA) only makes sense, if you want to program a tradingbot or want to use some kind of MA strategy for trading. At least that's my opinion. I tried that years ago, but I did not find an MA strategy that worked longterm for me.
Ahhhh fun stuff -_-
It's always good to keep these possibilities in mind. I'm not too sure about $3550 but BTC could go lower. The bright side is that alt-coins are starting to resist the bear market. during the last few days we had some green coins in the Top 200. It's a good sign. I'd be especially glad if people get more and more into alt-coins making them less correlated with BTC.
Percentage of Total Market Capitalization (Dominance) chart at https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ seem nice to me.
I think it's best to keep an eye on the total market cap of cryptos. Although BTC is declining, the Alts are pushing back and keeping the cap ~250billion.
Maybe BTC dies and something else takes its place? could be interesting to say the least - at least to have alts break away from the BTC price lock.
I've been screaming this since August last year. Best candidate at the moment is Dash. Do your own research at https://www.dashforcenews.com and https://www.dash.org/evolution/
As long as BTC does not fall under 1275$ (MOB), it will shoot up to at least 100k within the next two years. My personal estimate is way higher than that ;-) Keep that in mind.
That's over $1.7 Trillion marketcap. It's totally possible but it will be overvalued.Most of that money would eventually pour into alt-coins IMO.
Nice analysis...I think there are buyers just below the $6000 level. This level is stronger than the sell orders at $8000 and $8500.
Yes, This is very important information. You talk about three support here If there is good evidence here, then I will buy here. Please tell me What is your opinion?
The post was his opinion
HAHAHAH, kaBOOM! Comment of the week right there.
Thanks man, every once in awhile I gotta throw one out there
Thanks again for the updates, great analysis ;-)
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I think the BTC will fall significantly over the next few days, but where to. Will the BTC become like other currencies. And what will happen next. These things I can not find an answer