BTC is close to my invalidation level for the "no new low is needed" count. It is still possible, because a wave 2 can correct 99.9% of wave 1 and still be valid.
But in case 9,222$ gets breached today, here is my equally bullish alternate.
My preferred target for the alternate scenario is 7,500$.
Here are some possibly positive effects on the BTC price to keep in mind. Even though I don't believe in fundamentals, theese are some logical consequences, where some other markets are affected in the same way:
1. New month, new money. Fresh money can enter the market in February.
2. The futures rollover might have a positive effect. I discussed this issue with some of my followers already. I think this drop until the end of the month could become a regular thing, now that futures have been introduced. Hoping to be wrong about this though, because it would suck hard.
unrelated Update: We just hit 700,000 STEEM accounts milestone:
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Thanks for providing such a reasonable perspective on the BTC price moments. I’m hoping the new month will bring some fresh money as well.
I’m really wanting to move my currency out of Bitfinex at the moment but the suppressed price is deterring me from making the shift. Hopefully some increase in BTC price next month will give me this opportunity.
When do the first lot of futures expire?
Could you give any theories of where the impulse of new money could come from?
Hedge funds tend to shift their portfolios at the beginning and end of each month. Also workers get their paycheck at the end of the month. Bonds, as an alternative investment, are very dangerous right now. Indices are oversold like never before in human history... The money could come from anybody wanting to invest, while BTC is at a discount.
Tether... lol
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Thanks informations
Thanks for the TA. It's very helpful!
nice one @ew-and-patterns
but i believe the btc price would bounce back really well as the month of February commences and like you rightly put it its an expected pattern to get lows towards the end of the month with a new spike as a new month commences
cheers
I was just thinking with all the FUD flying around that an appropriate lower price would be around $8k. After reviewing a few crypto-investors my instincts seem to be on point. Thanks for the reassurance :)
I'm wondering if more and more bitcoin buyers/sellers are following the BTC futures market as a guidepost? Even though those traders aren't technically buying or selling BTC.
your post is great and interesting thank for share
What happens to steem and sbd ,it's dropping down daily .when it will raise again ?
I am mostly posting about BTC right now, because most coins depend on it, at least to some degree. STEEM has proven to be able to rise without BTC going up though.
In my opinion SBD and STEEM are both oversold right now and should rise soon.
Kk.Tqs
Thanks for the update once again, @ew-and-patterns! And congrats to all of us for reaching the 700,000 member milestone ;)
I still maintain we need a final lower low to shake out all the weak hands, leaving the impetus for a monumental rise up ! Without the lower low any rise could be weak
What is very interesting is looking at the total market cap for all Crypto from an Elliot Wave perspective, I believe you can see the current correction and read it a few ways. Either in wave 2) from the largest viewpoint, or in perhaps in the ABC...after 5 completed waves...interested in your view on that?..
The market cap chart looks like it is still in the B wave. But I don't have a detailed chart for that, so that I could analyse the subwaves.
So in your opinion still another largish correction in a C Wave to come then? Before the market really gets strong again..
This is just a first glance count, I don't have a detailed 3 hours chart to have a look at.
I think the market moves with BTC and not with total market cap though.
Appreciate your thoughts, not taking anything as gospel of course.
BTC chart is actually very similar to total market cap anyway, which I guess is expected, at least for now.. :)
Thanks for this. I was able to buy at $7,578!!!! Fingers crossed that you nailed it.