Having been in Bitcoin this long (I “proudly” lost 1.0 BTC at Mt Gox); amidst a 32-year financial market career (impressive, as I’m still 51!); nothing shocks me anymore, as I can confidently say I have “seen it all.” And when it comes to Bitcoin, the two things you can be sure of are that 1) it ALWAYS rises over time; and 2) will make you miserable every step of the way.
To wit, BTC NEVER wins technical battles, NEVER holds support, and nearly NEVER rises materially during Asian hours. Moreover, the entire financial establishment – plus most of the crypto community, for various reasons – HATES its “boring” and “threatening” existence. Consequently, every manner of “suppressive” and “demoralizing” algorithms have been created to prevent it from rising.
Until recently, ALL politicians spoke out against it; whilst evil, destructive agencies like the Fed and SEC (and Chinese government) have done EVERYTHING in their power to stop it. This, as hundreds of sh-tcoiners – like Faketoshi and Roger Ver – have tried to prove their new, centralized versions were better…which cumulatively, have created a perpetual state of FUD for the media and haters to feast on.
Throw in Bitcoin’s inherent volatility – particularly so, during illiquid periods of the world’s only 24/7 market – and you can see why ONLY a true HODLing strategy works…one, I might add, that avoids altcoins entirely, as they are not only 99% pump and dumps, but VASTLY riskier and more volatile.
Last, but far from least, are the dangers posed by listening to the legions of “TA gurus” and “crypto experts” – most of whom, are either selling subscriptions or paid to shill altcoins – who speak confidently (most of them, with little or no experience) but have not a clue what they are talking about…particularly in crypto - BY FAR the most volatile, unpredictable asset class of all time.
As for what we are witnessing today, the BTC decline (currently, 18%) is no more uncommon than other “crashes” of recent years – including the “massive” ones last year of 31% (January), 26% (February), 18% (March), 29% (April), 51% (May), 29% (June), 25% (September), 15% (October), 22% (November), and 27% (December) – which irrespective, couldn’t prevent BTC from ending 2021 58% higher than the end of 2020. This, amidst a fundamental backdrop as bullish as at ANY time in Bitcoin’s history – that frankly, has rendered ALL FUD attempts meaningless.
Consider that last year, 50% of Bitcoin’s hash rate was eliminated in a matter of weeks by the Chinese ban on mining – which frankly, was in my view a POSITIVE development. So much so, no one with any real knowledge of Bitcoin could care less about – which is why “illiquid supply” continued to rise all year; prices returned to a new ATH five months later; and hash rate fully recovered to a new ATH THIS WEEK.
Yes, the SEC is doing its best to delay the inevitable price explosion a REAL Bitcoin ETF would bring – instead, for the “safety of investors,” approving dangerous, leveraged futures ETFs to ensure that like December 2017, when they “protected” investors by allowing futures trading, prices would crash immediately thereafter…which, like December 2017, will also prove fleeting. The reason being, that illiquid supply will continue to rise as more and more institutions AND retail investors pour into the market – until ultimately, we reach a tipping point where ALL financialized attempts to suppress price are overwhelmed…which in my view, will arrive sometime later this year.
As for the current “hook” as to why we’re supposed to be scared this time around, you really couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried. At least in March 2020, there was widespread uncertainty about what the COVID outbreak might bring – for a few short days, until it became clear that it would simply mean more money printing…as if that hasn’t been the response to ALL financial crises, since the day the Fed was created 108 years ago.
Today, we’re told to fear that the Fed will raise rates from ZERO to perhaps 1% - MAYBE, market condition dependent - at a time when debt and asset markets are exploding; the economy is collapsing; and the political and social environments worldwide, NEVER more unstable. This, as real-time examples of hyperinflation – like Venezuela, Lebanon, and Turkey – are right in front of our faces. And LOL, “taper” the relentless explosion of its balance sheet, despite the fact that even the suggestion of such a cataclysmically suicidal event immediately crashes the most overvalued financial markets of all time…which in turn, were created by the very hyperinflationary policies that can NEVER be tapered.
And BTW, for all the “fear” that “deflation” will kick in as a result - consider that today, crude oil and lumber prices are soaring…and I assure you, prices at the supermarket didn’t decline a single red cent. To the contrary, REAL WORLD merchants, vendors and traders know full well that the dollar’s value – and Fed’s credibility – is in all-out collapse; and thus, it won’t be long before this week’s “deflation” narrative returns to hyperinflation.
BTW, for all of Peter Schiff’s self-serving, and relentlessly failing, attacks on Bitcoin, Precious Metals are performing just as badly as ANY asset (silver and miners are down as much as BTC!); so again, as I have shouted from the rooftops for five years, if you have ANY gold, silver or miners, SELL THEM NOW, for Bitcoin…as silver has ALREADY lost its monetary premium, and gold will shortly, too.
As for Bitcoin, the ONLY issue I have had for the past 1.5 years, is the fact that the aforementioned algos include hideous, market-suppressing ones that cause EVERY BTC tick, directionally, to follow ETH. This, whilst ETH has relentlessly risen against BTC since, nearly to the day, 1/1/21, amidst the latest “altcoin season” madness of believing that not only do NFT’s, DeFi, and other pie in the sky, hyper speculative markets have a brighter future than the REAL MONEY Bitcoin represents, but that the centralized, self-serving manipulations of ETH’s protocol to give the IMPRESSION of increased scarcity is a maintainable business plan.
It’s not, I assure you – and in time, these algorithms WILL be spectacularly broken, it’s just a matter of when. The only problem being, guessing when “when” will be. Will it be this year? Who knows, but I suspect so. But irrespective, if you keep HODLing Bitcoin, you CANNOT LOSE over time – and eventually, will be rewarded instantaneously, when Bitcoin decides to introduce its power with a BANG, to the financial world at large, and particularly the altcoin universe.