I get where you're coming from, but I disagree with your conclusion.

When I add up bitcoin's "first mover advantage", probably the most marketable name (and logo) currently in crypto, and BY FAR the most infrastructure built around it -- those three things alone are enough reason for me to believe that odds are stacked in bitcoin's favor.

I feel that my second point is often overlooked and severely underestimated. A marketable name that clearly explains what the thing is in a word is SOOOOOOO important. Bitcoin has that in spades. Not enough people are going to take Titcoin seriously for it to reach mass adoption, as an example. Ether could also be better named, but it's a clever enough name (though you may have to dig to understand the metaphor) to remember. Steem is also a clever name that's very marketable, which is part of why I was so attracted to it over a year ago and still am today.