The Exchange Strategy Team of Wells Fargo
He expects the US dollar to fall against most major currencies later this year due to monetary policy.
Key Statements:
"The US dollar reversed much of its weakness in recent months after having declined approximately 8 percent in 2017. Economic growth in general has remained stable in the United States, although registering a slower pace than in 2017. But Growth in some other advanced economies also surprised the downside in the first quarter. Global monetary policy convergence then stopped with more moderate data from the first quarter, greater political uncertainty and concerns about the growing global protectionism. "
"In the face of short-term uncertainty, we continue to look for a further tightening of world monetary policy in 2018. We see that the FOMC raises rates three times more, and looks for another BoE rake increase and two more from the Bank of Canada to the end of the year. We do not predict that the ECB will raise rates until next year, but we expect it to conclude its bond purchase program before the end of the year, even after the recent political uncertainty in Spain and Italy. The Bank of Japan remains a standout, as we seek to remain firmly accommodating. "
"Our Foreign Exchange Strategy team is looking for the dollar to resume its downward trend against most major currencies later this year. Eventual rate hikes by other major central banks should be more favorable to foreign currencies, especially taking into account the later stage of the FOMC adjustment cycle. "
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