You can't assign a valuation to something by saying it'll take a certain % market share of an entire market. That's just flawed logic. I mean, sure the derivatives market is massive, but where exactly are you getting the idea or confidence that Ripple will achieve the market penetration necessary to even take a portion of the derivatives market?

I will concede that Ripple's blockchain technology is good, but there is absolutely no reason banks need to adopt XRP to benefit from the blockchain tech underlying. It's important to remember that the token and tech can be independent of each other. To think that banks will relinquish so much power by adopting XRP is extremely optimistic thinking.

Also, regarding you mentioning the 1.3 Quadrillion derivatives market. People have made the same mistake in the past saying that that the worldwide market for precious metals is in the trillions and that if BTC captures just 10 - 20%, it should be worth 50-70k. You can't just postulate that the coin you're excited about will capture market share like that. There's a difference between (coin market cap X coin value) and (total market value X coin market penetration)