Bitcoin, regress after the Carnival (economic perspective)

in #bitcoin7 years ago

In the past 2017, bitcoin, which has surged and collapsed, has undoubtedly become one of the hottest topics in the world: the price has increased by 20 times in one year, and has fallen by more than 40% in a day. At the beginning of the new year, bitcoin continued to decline, and the price fell below 13 thousand US dollars, but the price of bitcoin still deviated from its value compared with the price of less than 1000 yuan at the beginning of last year. Recall that bitcoin first appeared bookstalls days, there was a man who used 10 thousand coins to buy a pizza, in the face of today's market, some people regret, more people are worried and doubt: how bitcoin bubble? It is not a replica of the tulip bubble?

There is a bubble in the price of bitcoin, which is no longer a question to discuss, both from the rise and from the value of the currency itself. Its advantages: scarcity, fidelity, strong liquidity, transparency and centralization are all just a pretense of speculation, which is impossible to support the rally of the roller coaster. The recent collapse has been very revealing.

One of the sources of the bubble of bitcoin is retrofit speculation. On the one hand is the mysterious speculation bitcoin, including but not limited to the inventor of the mystery of life, crypto currency and control the total inflation will not ring; the other is the "center" of the hype, is not controlled by any country, government and financial institutions, has safe and free property etc.. In addition, bitcoin itself in the trading mechanism has no price limitations and no, completely unified trading platform, gives speculators flourishes imagination, with bitcoin tokens issued for the first time bifurcation, and other new ways, once pushed its price up.

No value support bitcoin worth, why there is a likely rise directly to a high position? Transaction collusion. The bitcoin currency from cold to hot, from low to high trajectory, it is not difficult to find: bitcoin those so-called "advantages" naturally, why once in this very worth pondering?. Today, according to Bloomberg, about 40% of the world's bitcoins are controlled in the hands of about a thousand people. People in the bitcoin circle call it the "beluga". At the same time, from the history of the development of bitcoin, it was only a "small circle" trading on a few platforms until the price skyrocketed. It is easy to think of the possibility of a trade Conspiracy - the motive for holding a large number of bitcoins to naturally have the price of the money of the money in order to cash in.

A bitcoin is called a coin, but not a coin. Looking around the world, only Germany recognizes its equivalent as a "private currency". Neither monetary authorities nor financial regulators naturally supervise bitcoins as regulatory currencies. In this way, bitcoin is becoming a special "equivalent" that travels in the gray zone.

Recently, bitcoin and its derivative financial transactions are in full swing. Many exchanges in the United States have approved bitcoin futures, but they are not regulated. The bitcoin covered with a seemingly legitimate coat, but also makes bitcoin is more like the seventeenth Century Holland tulip bubble: have a clear purpose of banker who earned pours, the blind pursuit of, stand by knowing. Compared with the $20 thousand gold / highs, bitcoin prices decline at present has been deep, but if the future government to strengthen supervision, or its own capacity constraints lead to contraction, bitcoin bubble level will go deeper. In the past, bitcoin prices have been cut through, its future trend is particularly alarming.