Hi,
My name is MB, sports betting entrepreneur, family guy and huge believer in crypto/blockchain. I analyse games, I create my own betting models and I challenge myself in sports betting. I analyse and bet baseball (MLB), NHL and basketball. I also have different betting projects and betting challenges.
The longest and most exciting betting project for most people and also for me is 5 Year betting plan - become a millionaire. I shared all those bets on my site and also via emails. But I want to share this project exclusively here. Steemit, bitcoins, crypto,... well... this makes sense, everything is connected. Right? I would not find better place to share this. I am not here to sell picks or attract anyone to follow me, but I want to share my progress and if I succeed, even better.
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I started with this betting project on 6th October, 2017. The price of one bitcoin on this day was $4,400. I locked this for next 5 years and it will not be a disaster for me, if I lose it. I am huge believer in bitcoins and blockchain technology and I am very excited about the future. I also believe, that bitcoins will raise in the future. So, I took 1 BTC and started betting on that day with the hope that bitcoins will raise and I will make a profit too. I started tracking my record with combination of bitcoin growth. It is a combination of possible bitcoin growth and my betting skills.
I bet for long time and I always used sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle) or betting exchanges (Matchbook) to get the best odds and higher limits, which is very important. In the past I could reach around 5% yield overall and this is how I set the goal to long term, but I underestimated the whole thing little bit.
It is 160th day of this betting project and I will continue to share this project here on Steemit.
I was thinking how to contribute on STEEMIT more , but I simply don't have time to write daily analysis, because I analyse and project the lines for more than 5000 games per year and I have couple of other projects, that will take a lot of time, including running my website and online business. But yesterday I saw, that Google will ban bitcoins and crypto ads and this gave me even bigger motivation to contribute more here. I want to contribute more in all crypto communities and steemit is great way. I already posted couple of things here, but i am still not familiar with the whole thing. I promise that I will research and understand whole concept about voting and everything else until the end of the month. Bitcoins, crypto, blockchain,... I am very confident, that this is the future for all of us and can not be stopped. I would love to record my videos only on DTube, but right now the whole thing is uploading very slowly and sometimes my videos were not even uploaded, so i stopped from doing this and continue on youtube. But I am huge believer in this and it is possible that I will move completely from youtube to DTube in the future too.
Back to my betting project...
I didn't start well with my betting project. I made couple of mistakes and I started to bet at the wrong time too. And there is also small factor, that I don't have any influence.
I am struggling with NHL last 2 seasons and if I will continue to struggle, I will maybe stay away from this sport. I don't see any problem with that, because I still bet very successfully on basketball and baseball is almost always solid, good or very good. But before I withdraw from NHL, I will keep working on my analysis and research, because in the past I had good success.
So, I started to bet on NHL and I made a loss. Later I started betting on basketball, but I bet on every single game, that I took on Pinnacle for myself. But bitcoin bookmakers have little bit lower odds than Pinnacle and when you make more than 1000 picks, it is very important if you get 1.95 or only 1.92. So, I lose some amount of money there too.
Right now I am on 554 wins 581 losses, 20 push bets and profit/loss of -฿0.626
I started to make much lower bets and this will be one of the biggest and very exciting challenges for me in the future - to come back. And I will do my best, but I need to step up and be more selective.
My mistakes and problems that I faced (and underestimated them from the start):
🤦Bad start to the NHL
🤦Not being selective, especially on basketball smaller leagues
🤦Betting on bad odds (bigger margins)
What kind of problems could I face in the future (if I come back somehow 👨🔧)
🛑Limits. Bitcoin price is changing daily. So, I made a plan to bet more and more and if the bitcoin will raise, bookmakers will change their limits too, which makes sense, right? It is not the same, if they allow you to bet 0.1 BTC and if the price of the bitcoin is $9000 or $90,000. If bitcoin will grow, the limits (in btc, not in $) will be much lower. But we will see. I don't have any influence on bitcoins and cryptocurrencies in the future, so I will focus on my betting only. And then I will hope, that bitcoins will help me too.
How I will improve whole thing?
👨💻First I will not bet all my bets, that I would make on Pinnacle, but I need to be very selective. For example, my basketball record on 1141 picks is 617 -503-21, 55.09%, yield +5.44% right now. But those are bets from Pinnacle, where my average odds are 1.91.
Even if I would bet only basketball, I need to be very careful with the odds. Odds are dropping and I need to be selective with the odds that I get on bitcoin bookmakers. Here is comparison of different odds and my basketball results.
Odds Profit Yield
1.91 58.47 5.22%
1.95 83.15 7.42%
1.87 33.79 3.02%
1.82 2.94 0.26%
And when we add my NHL, that was not good so far this season, I have a negative start to my betting project. 🤓
👨💻 Second thing that I will add here and I didn't track it before is that I will track my bitcoin bookmakers odds against Pinnacle closing lines.
I rarely see anyone who do this. I think i saw only one guy so far, who track his records and compare it with closing lines (CLV - closing line value).
So, why is this important?
According to Pinnacle (which is the sharpest bookmaker in the world): "The most accurate way we have found, to distinguish winning and losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet, and compare it with the Pinnacle Sports closing line on the game. If a player consistently beats our closing price, they are likely to be a long-term winner – period. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company."
(I hope you read carefully that part:... "Interestingly, we have found that this test is more reflective of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record..." If not, read it again 🤔)
I will start tracking from today my bitcoin bookmakers odds (no Pinnacle odds) and compare them with Pinnacle closing lines to see if I have some edge.
What is the idea and philosophy behind this? It is pretty simple. Let's say, that you are smart investor in crypto world. You buy ADA Cardano at $0.19, while most people will start buying it at $5. You were smarter and you beat the market. Sports betting is also market. And if you get better price all the time, you can say, that you have the edge.
How this looks in a practical way? Three possible options:
💡You bet on Colorado at 2.30 six hours before the game. Pinnacle closing line is 2.10. - THIS IS GOOD! You got better price than it was a closing line.
💡You bet on Colorado at 2.30 six hours before the game. Pinnacle closing line is 2.50. - THIS IS NOT GOOD! You got weaker odds than it was a closing line.
💡You bet on Colorado at 2.30 six hours before the game. Pinnacle closing line is 2.30. - THIS IS SO, SO!
How I will track this?
A - My Odds
B - Pinnacle Closing Odds
CLV =(B-A)/(1/A)
If the number is positive = good.
One more thing about following my 5 Year betting plan bets. I am huge believer, that following other people's picks is not the right way. For me it is like looking for shortcuts and we all know, that shortcuts in our life will not bring us success. I also suck in this betting project. I made bad bets, I made bets with big margins, I was not selective, unfortunately I started when I had a bad months in NHL and I simply underestimated the whole thing little bit. So, it is not smart to follow me anyway because of all those reasons in this betting project.
Even If I would reach that 5% yield and even if I would make a profit so far, you would not get the same odds than me. This is in case if I would make a profit. There are so many obstacles when it comes to following other people's picks, that it is not worth 😁
I share this project because of me and because it is very exciting. It will be also exciting now, when I am down and I need to climb back. And if I succeed at the end, well this would be one great story. There will be still a lot of problems, but let's see how I will finish it.
Note also, that I don't sell picks, I am not asking anyone to tail me but am just sharing my bitcoin betting picks. I have no interest in hearing someone whine if they follow me and lose.
So let's start here on steemit or if I am more precise - let's continue from 160th day.
Record: 554-581-20, Profit (Betting + Bitcoin Growth):-$881.74
CLV (started tracking from 15.3.2018): +0.00%
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Today's Bets in this betting project:
15/3/2018
Game NHL ice hockey - Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens
฿et #1154 Montreal @2.59
Risk 0.0089 ฿ (2.29% of current bankroll) Bet at Bitcoinrush
Game NHL ice hockey - Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings
฿et #1155 Detroit @3
Risk 0.007 ฿ (1.81% of current bankroll) Bet at Bitcoinrush
Game NHL ice hockey - Washington Capitals at New York Islanders
฿et #1156 NY Islanders @2.26
Risk 0.008 ฿ (2.07% of current bankroll) Bet at Bitcoinrush
Game NBA basket - Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks
฿et #1157 NY Knicks +10 @1.93
Risk 0.0058 ฿ (1.5% of current bankroll) Bet at Cloudbet
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All bets are played on bookmakers listed below. Note also, that bookmakers links below are affiliate links, which means that if you choose to create an account and bet there, I can earn a commission. This commission comes at NO additional cost to you. Please do not open accounts on these bookmakers unless you feel you need them or that they will help you achieve your goals. If you’ve signed up from my links before, thank you very much! I greatly appreciate your support!
If you’ve signed up from my links before, thank you very much! I greatly appreciate your support!:
👑Bitcoinrush: https://www.bitcoinrush.io/r?u=31620
👑Nitrogensports: https://nitrogensports.eu/r/2040038
👑Cloudbet: https://underdogchance.com/cloudbet
👑Sportsbet: https://underdogchance.com/sportsbet
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♨️Social:
Twitter: http://twitter.com/underdogchance
Facebook group (my $30,000 betting challenge): https://www.facebook.com/groups/220684411706508/
Steemit: https://steemit.com/@underdogchance
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/Underdogchancecom-1439998049625192/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/underdogchance/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/underdog-chance-0ab28911b
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👨💻My Website: https://underdogchance.com
👨💻Partner Website: http://bitcoinbettors.com/
⚾How I bet baseball: https://underdogchance.com/betting-model-bet-baseball/
I wish you good luck!
MB
Looking good, can't fault yourself too much for NHL, it's been a strange season haha.
Not really strange season at least for me. I simply suck this season. My fault and need to work on it.