I've been trading bitcoin since 2013 and I have over 15 years of experience trading in traditional capital markets.
I evaluate trades based on five key buckets: (1) fundamentals, (2) liquidity, (3) technicals, (4) sentiment, and (5) positioning.
For entry and exit points, I always rely on technical analysis.
The most reliable chart patterns are those first identified by Richard W. Schabacker in his 1932 book entitled: "Technical Analysis & Stock Market Profits."
A free copy of this book can be found using this link: https://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/34201934/900609546/name/Technical_Analysis.pdf
In Study III, Schabacker identifies the descending triangle formation which formed in bitcoin between September 1st and September 13th. The pattern broke below the horizontal boundary of the descending triangle on September 13th. This signals a decline in the price equal to the height of the triangle. In my image below, the distance from A to B should equal the distance from B to C and targets $3,150.
I think that we see bottom around 2000 and then again fast rise. Thats because some people are afraid now and they do not stop selling while the drop curve is so stright. But before 2000 the selling wave slows down and that affects people to stop selling.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! 2,000 is definitely possible and an important psychological level. If my $3,150 level does not hold, the next test would be $3,000 which is another important psychological level. I see a lot of buying support between 3,000 and 3,150 so my plan is to accumulate in that range.
Thats good opinion I think. What do you think about ethereum value? Would it go under 200?
They are highly correlated almost 1:1 since ETH made its big advance earlier this year. So my view is that ETH bottoms around the equivalent level as BTC. Bitcoin buy range of 3,000 - 3,150 implies an ETH buy range of about 200 - 217. I think 200 should hold based on the technicals and the importance of the 200 psychological level. Any dip below 200 is likely to be bought quickly.
Bitcoin and most of all cryptocurrencies wont die. They will be adopt in real life.
Agree 100%. Of course there will be winners and losers. The best analog is the early days of the internet. There was excessive speculation about the value of this new technology in the late 1990s. The speculation went through a bubble and bust cycle but ultimately was proven correct that the internet was a game changing technology. Pets.com and many other sites went to zero (the losers) but the amazons/googles/facebooks/etc of the world were huge winners. Blockchain will be no different. So far, despite 1-slow transaction speed, 2-lack of definitive resolution on the scaling debate, and 3-high transaction costs, bitcoin has proven to be the best asset in this space... well deserving of the first mover advantage.