Here's my post predicting the recent bottom in Bitcoin:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@third-eye/i-m-buying-bitcoin-at-usd3-150-and-here-s-why
Now, I think we are heading to $4,250. Here's why.
The catalyst for the selloff was clear, China appears to be shutting down all bitcoin exchanges. We can debate the various conspiracy theories surrounding this but the fact of the matter remains, this is on balance a negative for the bitcoin price.
The bitcoin price is largely driven by liquidity. According to coindesk.com, China trading volume represents around 15% of total volume:
My prediction is simple. If liquidity drives the price, a 15% decline in liquidity should equate to a 15% decline in the stabilized price. With a recent high of $5,000/btc, that would mean a stabilized price of $4,250.
I would guess that we meet resistance on the bounce around $4,000, eventually overshoot to $4,500, and retest $4,000 before stabilizing around my $4,250 price target.
Another scenario is that this bounce is a classic bull trap and the bubble has popped. This is NOT my base case but it is possible. If the price breaks above 4,000 then crashes below 3,000 this scenario may be playing out. Again, this is NOT my base case but it is possible.
I'm feeling bull-trap... I hope you are right though. Either way we're going to the moon!
It's definitely possible. The main reason I think this is a sustainable bounce is the speed. We spent < 30 minutes below 3,000 and bounced very quickly off my $3,150 target predicted by the descending triangle. That tells me there is strong buying in that price range.