I dont know if I am smart but I do agree with you on that...I am in the 3 and 4 camp.
My entire premise with cryptocurrencies is long term. I figure BTC, LTC, Steem, ETH, and a bunch of other altcoins will be worth a lot more in the future.
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Last time everyone expected a disastrous BCH fork (which turned out quite succesful) while this time everyone expects risk free profit by liquidating altcoins and jumping on the Bitcoin Gold wagon.
But a chain fork does not necessarily generate value out of thin air, the last time we just saw a positive dissolution of pre-fork uncertainty boosting both BTC and BCH. I'm not so sure this will repeat with the inverted market expectations that we have now.