Good analysis but what i think is,if we are looking to hold Bitcoin for long-term then we need not worry about up's and down's as it is surely going to increase with time. And bitcoin is worth holding.
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I agree with that....long term the direction is hopefully up. And just holding is a good strategy, because trading takes so much time if you want make money and not lose money doing it!
But in my case I'm trying to be a 'professional trader' so that means I need to earn income from trading, if possible :). But I still use the holding-only strategy for many alt-coins I have, and also for steem power! :)