It looks like we're in the middle of a short term bounce that is sub-minuette wave iv. Wave ii was a shallow retracement. Given Elliott's alternation guideline, I'm expecting this to be a sharp retracement. A 61.8% retracement would take us back near the $3674 level for the completion of sub-minuette wave iv. From there, given this count, we can expect another sharp move to the downside to complete sub-minuette wave v as well as minuette wave (iii).
A rally above $3720 would invalidate this count.
If you have any thoughts or questions about this wave count or elliott wave in general, please post them in the comments.
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We won't see $3700 or above the next 24 hours
Given the current wave count, I agree. If we see prices go above $3720, then we know this count needs to be revised :)
That said, I do think a sharp retracement is in order. Since the market tries to hurt the most people, if we get a sharp upward retracement, many will jump back on the bull wagon, thinking we've hit bottom, only to get crushed in the next down swing.
This is so true. I have learned to be patient with it. Nothing goes down or up straight. I see so many people in forums saying buy now buy now just to burn others. Happens all the time. I think we will see lower lows now. if more exchanges decide to shut down in china it will add to the lows.
How low can you go?
How low can you go?
How low can you go?
How low can you go?
Haha. Maybe $3000... Maybe lower. The larger degree wave count is not invalidated unless we drop below $1850, so we've got plenty of room. I'm not saying prices will go there, but it wouldn't invalidate our picture of the market.
Great. Thanks for the info!
I've seen that too.
I couldn't agree more on patience. That is one great thing about Elliott Wave... it gets you in the habit of anticipating the next move instead of chasing the current one.