This was a day for the record books guys...i have a feeling that some futures are already being tested and other hedge funds are trying to see what happens when the system is strained..i don't know about you guys, but i wouldn't be surprised if they called this off..the reason i say this is because look at the havoc this much volume caused..i have a few friends that either got stopped out or margin called on a few flash crashes and couldn't even log into their accounts to liquidate...i think this is why the banks just said today that they should not launch futures..they are afraid of a systemic risk to the system..and to me, they are right in some respects..im saying this to protect us, not them...by the way guys..i witnessed this first hand in 2008....this is what just got green lighted on the futures market...this is what may happen to the market...if you don't know what this is...read the comments...High frequency computers just destroyed the S&P emini futures market..i traded futures and like haejin said, there is no joy in it...this is why i wanted futures to be banned on Bitcoin..many others are excited but I'm nervous...just be diligent and careful guys...thanks for the great TA as always haejin
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I know you know what you're doing my friend, but I would not have stops in place for BTC when expecting a full bull run, just for that reason. Rather, I would have stops, but they would be very low, unless of course they were in on margin. Just for your info....I have been watching as many markets as I can at one time. I know Kraken sucks and is slow as shit, but it has the least volatility that I have found. No flash crashes. In fact, it held strong while Bittrex fluctuated over a thousand dollars 3 times.....Kraken moved about 3 hundred bucks one time in that same time span. It's also holding a higher value than other markets. In addition, the buyers there are VERY strong. I witnessed live, many selling walls fall to single buys of over 5 million dollars at one time. I even shorted at one point because the other markets fell sharply, and I paid for it because Kraken held it's price firm. Never short a Bull Market.....sorry Haejin... :( but I got it all back and then much much more by hanging on through the dips. I'm still holding for 20k.
I also thought today that I bet the Chicago exchange is testing waters, or maybe even stocking up to offer clients special deals or something. I could not believe my eyes as I watched the books get destroyed even when it was sellers 300btc dead against buyer 1.3btc.....they want their money at the top, and every single time I thought the books were going to flip the script on me....buys would just come in and wipe out the walls so quick it was crazy.
Thank you for the informative post, it's very important for people to realize what is taking place this Sunday.....like you said, be diligent and careful. I won't be in at that time, just because it's unknown how the market will react. However.....I do believe these trades are already taking place on most markets, you can see Predatory and AAMs happening all the time with BTC, not to mention other Algorithms that are breaking up orders just the hold price range steady for both buyer and sellers.
A big difference is that I know of no markets giving rebates or points for trades......so I don't really see the advantage of running those scripts in a market not providing rewards, If you are in, and apply a limit order that is not posted, and do not have stops in place, they will just fluctuate the price until it hits your number at some point, and you still get what you intended from the trade. Please correct me if I am missing something here.
Thanks scarlet...i know this is a tough one..because nobody knows...it could just go to $50000 in a blink of an eye..my understanding is that most institutions could not participate in these markets until the futures markets were approved...this would make sense because of the unregulated exchanges and the massive spreads and flash crashes...the SEC doesn't look kindly on this...this is also why im surprised they approved futures...the types of things going on with these small exchanges would be front headline news and regulators would bring the hammer down..im trying to put myself in their shoes..if i was a hedge fund manager and knew i could manipulate the market, i would want lower prices...BUT...I was listening to Trace Mayer whom i respect a lot and he was saying that with cash settled futures and the intense and mind boggling demand they may get rekt...i personally would like to see that so they back off...this will be interesting to watch for sure...i personally don't use stops accept in BTC and i challenged my freinds on this..but it's really a personal decision...cheers friend
I think many will find it to be very risky to get involved. Most classic investors that I have seen don't want anything to do with the volatility. I know of some who own BTC but won't admit it to other classic market traders. There is a bit of a stigma to it in that world....however, the gang investors see the money and will work like Vegas to get in....meaning whatever it takes to sell a client on the idea of HUGE profits in short periods of time....which is true to some degree. I have a feeling it's kind of like what you just said....they may get screwed bad playing games with BTC. There could be many that see a price hop, and take the money and run....leaving the bags held by the futures traders are very very high prices. Of course, unfortunately, in both situation, the innocent and the idiot will also lose no matter what happens....but this is a risky trading realm, and we know that up down left and right. I have lost a LOT in a very short amount of time, and I have gained just as much in less time. I have a buddy who is a big time international investor for large clients. He says most of them are only slightly interested on a personal level, their companies are not at all. He also said anyone who makes classic investments only to this point will likely only place somewhere around 1% of their portfolio into crypto until the market gets a price and sits on a steady growth without the massive risk that we all take daily.
I can see it going either way....which I realize isn't helpful, but it's the truth. That being said, it's just like any other trading day to me in most ways. This is because every single day, people and groups attempt market manipulation, and many achieve it, but the goal of an investor my size isn't to be with the good guys or bad guys as people see them, but to be in the right place at the right time....just like with every trade, no matter who or what is moving the market
Totally agree with you scarlet...it's a double edged sword...im concerned that when wall street gets involved it will scare the new people to death...i liked the organic growth story BTC and crypto has had with everyone including the little guy being able to participate...but now, we don't know...the futures market was a shitshow...it is so taken over by HFT that it's just insane..i really really hope this genuine achievement we call BTC and crypto isn't hurt by the wolves that are waiting and can smell blood
Great conversation. Thanks guys. The cash settled part of this is a big deal since it means that buying and selling a future is really just a bet on what happens with the actual price of Bitcoin on the exchanges. So it won't be the driver of price but instead will react to it.
Thanks dm....that's a really good point....the only thing im worried about is ways around this such as large institutions or hedge funds are able to buy large quantities of BTC on the OTC market...so this is a way to get around this..i may be wrong on this so any feedback from others is appreciated...it will be interesting to see...but EW is a great tool to use to perhaps see it before it happens..this is why haejin is cool as a cucumber in his videos...lol
I agree completely on the manipulation in the futures market. It's how they keep the Gold/Silver price down even though we all know that inflation is way higher than 1% or whatever number is being claimed.
A large holder of BTC could use the futures market to make a short bet since they have the actual coin which would cover their ass if they were wrong. If they are correct, then they profit from their short.
I still don't see this type of action pushing around the REAL price of BTC. Let's see what transpires.
in my mind the way it will happen is due to major major players coming in...these guys on wall street put the whales in this game to shame...what they will do is buy shorts as a hedge and then buy tens of millions of dollars worth of BTC..when they are happy with the returns they will dump them...these types of dumps will be like nothing we have seen before..then they will keep their shorts and profit on the way down...then on top of that the HFT algos will chew up the weak and inexperienced...it will be interesting to see what happens..but! i think we will have a massive rally after they buy their hedges..we just gotta follow the waves and haejin's expertise of course to try and get out before the blood bath...great conversation guys..cheers and good luck to all