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RE: Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

Thanks for your eloquent insights into this fascinating sphere! What is the best introduction to technical analysis for absolute beginners?

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Read William J. Oneill's "How to Make Money in Stocks" and go to Stockcharts.com and look into their chart school tutorials.

But please remember, technical analysis does not predict what will happen to prices. It only indicates the possibilities and probabilities, NOT CERTAINTY.

I use TA because I know I don't know how to interpret the verbiage that passes for companies' quarterly and annual reports. Lines on a chart are much clear to me than people who twist the English language to indicate things are good when they are really headed into the toilet.

Regards,
Rick

Thanks! I am new to cryptocurrencies (or trading, for that matter) and I am actually sceptical about TA, but I would still like to understand the core concept and the main techniques of this approach to figure out if it makes sense to me or not.

@schuwall, you're welcome. I hesitate to welcome you to the wonderful world of trading and TA though. The market is a savage place that can and will take your hard earned money without remorse or mercy or pity. Please please be very careful and paranoid.

Please do not trade more than you can afford to lose.

With those basic humanitarian cautions expressed, welcome to trading.

The basic premise of TA is that all information known to all market participants is reflected in price and volume. It is that simple. Further theory says that one does not need to know the "reasons" for price and volume changes because patterns of price and volume changes emerge that create opportunities for profitable trading.

Those who deride TA tend to misunderstand probability is not certainty and that discipline and planning are required for both downside and upside scenarios in any trade.

I am not any kind of TA expert. I'm self taught and extremely simplistic in my analysis and in the last 30 years I'm sure I've lost more money than I've made trading.

There is a youtube channel called DataDash and a guy named Nick there who seems to be a pretty knowledgeable TA practitioner. I rarely subscribe to youtube channels but I'm considering a DataDash sub.

Good luck and be careful,
Rick

Is this the newest edition of the book?

http://amzn.to/2CppoL1

That is the correct book. I don't know if it is the newest because I read it 17 years ago after the dot.com bubble burst and my $66,000 IRA became a $22,000 IRA.

Also, to be clear, I am not recommending the CANSLIM methodology. I'm just saying the book helped me get clear on reading charts, trends, and indicators.

Back in 2000 there were not many books available in the "... For Dummies" series. Maybe Technical Analysis for Dummies is worth looking at.

Good luck,
Rick