I am not a good trader so i will just Hodl . The fall in price of Bitcoin is no surprise really considering all the negative press that has surrounded cryptocurrancies since the beginning of the year. It is just a blip and I am sure it will start to regain its strength once all the drama has died down. People are worried and scared after what happened in Japan and then banks banning trading of cryptos in some places and not allowing you to buy it with credit cards etc.
It is a temporary setback and will soon be back on top strong again .
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This is a bit more than a blip. It's a crash. This makes sense considering the huge November-December rally which inflated the price above what it should naturally be. This crash isn't quite a price correction, but the result of this crash will most likely be a correction above the floor and below where it was over December and January.
Someone with better analysis skills than I should form a strong estimate of where exactly the floor will be. If we know the floor we can make some estimates of where the price will be corrected to.
Besides of the TA, I think that people feelings will make BTC hit the 20k ATH in a reasonably short time of/when it survives all the FUD being spread right now.
Yeah it's like 2013/14 all over again. Except it seems to be happening much faster!
What I find really interesting is the Elliottician standard quote: "News will arrive to justify the price."
In this case I see several news items that do so: the ones you mentioned, and also the South Korean crackdown; BitConnect failing, and others being warned by Texas and other states; and China restricting citizen access to foreign exchanges -- I mostly trade on Binance (which is in China), and if they impose further restrictions, like preventing foreigners from accessing Chinese exchanges -- then I might lose access to coins, which would be really bad if I was in the middle of manually trading them.
I've submitted my documents to Binance and noticed today that the withdrawal limit was raised to 100 BTC, so I can now carry out my plan of keeping coins off exchanges -- albeit at a cost, which I liken to insurance, or hedging.
Regulation and restriction will solidify the legitimacy of crypto as a form of currency, as counter-intuitive as it sounds. A government banning something that people use signals that the government has recognised and acknowledged the threat of it. Similar to how China cannot acknowledge Taiwan as an independent region, governments generally cannot acknowledge cryptocurrency.
However, this does not apply to China solely due to the overbearing government presence in everyday life. The communist dictator holds a scary amount of power, especially after his most recent power grab. This power controls the culture and if the communist government does not like crypto, the Chinese people do not like crypto.
I agree with your assessment -- it rhymes with "if you're not taking flack, you're not over the target."