Bitcoin 我的掘礦記事報告四 / My Mining Journal - 4

今次係講關於心理質素嘅重要性。This time we talk about what I should think onward. (English in the middle)

上一篇之後嘅兩星期嘅時間都幾難過。如果唔係長遠睇好同我一早做好晒預估，真係會發癲。

掌握規律及正確預估嘅重要性

首先睇一睇個圖，由中國禁ICO到回升到接近價位嘅$4350，足足用左29日。一諗到呢29日個管理費之前就令我不安。然後再望下埋個淨收入，穩定左都仲係唔會回復番，仍然停留響低位，如果因為價格而再有新競爭者投入掘礦，再令礦產進一步下跌，咁就真係渣都冇。

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/5	0.00315528	0.00074625	0.00240903	4422.1106
2017/10/2	0.00245338	0.00074931	0.00170407	4404.0517

10月2日個價又再開始跌，都咪話唔驚。因為如果再唔升番上去，就好大機會有一個長期嘅大跌浪，咁我好肯定會回唔到本。

心態轉變

不過驚驚下都習慣左，除左因為一直都寫Steemit之外，我仍然係相信Bitcoin唔會消失，仍然會有一定價值。心理質素係唔係講梗呢一樣野？

有心情向好嗰方面諗之後，再攞番以前做落個預估出黎睇，對一對啲數字，咦....好似唔係咁差咋喎。

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471
2017/10/2	0.00245338	0.00074931	0.00170407	4404.0517

個淨收入只係少左22%，而唔係第三篇時比較少左50%咁多。再計一計個掘出數量，一樣係22%。我開始再睇多啲我先前一早計好左嘅數據。

掘礦難度調整，由我第一日開始有掘礦之後，一共過左 4次。

1 x (1-7%) x 93% x 93% x 93% = 74%

即係個掘出數量應該係少左26%先啱。預估嘅26%減少同實際嘅22%比，其實到嗰一日為止，仍然係好過當初買入合約後數日所計算Difficulties 之後嘅估算。換言之，雖然中間跌幅過急，但計番價跌同產量跌呢兩個極壞嘅因素，都仍然未跌穿我最初重新計算嘅估算數字。

知道之後再用番買入Contract時勁無知嘅計算方法黎計一計。

2017/8/8
0.00219432 x 55 = 0.12068760

對比番我實際淨收入嘅數值總計 0.12239545，我實際淨收入仍然比起買入當日所計算嘅好。

知道之後，心情即刻唔同晒。差啲走去開香檳慶祝添。即時有心機去做Steemit嘅寫作。心情唔同，結果都真係會唔同。

利好因素盡現眼前

心情唔同，睇到嘅野都唔同。響10月3日嗰一刻，雖然仲係見到Bitcoin價錢有回吐，內心樂觀令我開始回復狀態，睇得更遠。

嗰一刻，市場其實有好多利好嘅因素等我去發掘。首先，跌到$3000之下仍然會即時回升到$3000以上嘅位置，可以睇到$3000其實係一個好強嘅支持位。就算第日TD9出現，跌極都只會響$3000止跌回升上黎。

中國因素亦都令市場進一步上升，講梗嘅係冇額外嘅政策消息。響中國禁ICO同勸退交易所之後，價錢仍然可以短時間回升至$4400以上，可以見到中國已經失去左最後能夠影響Bitcoin發展嘅能力。

而且，雖然不停有傳中國國內嘅礦場會被取替，但計算力仍然不停上升，足以睇到根本呢啲只係謠言。及後，加密幣NEO嘅隊伍更加爆出有官員請教過佢地對加密幣嘅睇法，可以睇到其實官方係有一個去順應加密幣（或者數碼人仔）嘅諗法。之後Bitcoin嘅價錢就再冇下跌過。

學到嘅事

呢一段時間嘅經歷真係好寶貴。簡單黎講係學到以下嘅道理：

要響逆境打拼，樂觀嘅心態係極之重要。唔樂觀就唔會睇得到曙光。
現實永遠比理論多變，而作為預估嘅模型永變都要有足夠估算多變數情況嘅功能。否則就會錯誤解讀突然出現嘅「危機」。講得簡單啲，就係要知道我呢個系列所寫嘅解說。我都係向其他地方自學，所以都可以叫做「網上資料」掛。（不過點樣解讀就真係.....）
市場嘅反應永遠比現實誇張，不利消息出現後必需細心分析，以免錯誤布局，出現唔能夠補償嘅損失。

當然，我都知只係好運。

### English Version

Your mindset controls your destiny. Be calm and positive all the time. It is always important to know this key fact, especially in time of troubles.

Importance of Understanding the Mechanism and Adequate Projections

First, let’s take a look in the plot right below the title. From China ICO Ban to the next time it reached the same price level, it took 29 days. The Maintenance I paid for this 29 days were so high that made me feel cautious. Look at the Net Income and you should see it stabilized but not bounced back. If more Hashrates were drawn due to price, the Mining output would drop further.

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/5	0.00315528	0.00074625	0.00240903	4422.1106
2017/10/2	0.00245338	0.00074931	0.00170407	4404.0517

Right after 2nd Oct, the price dropped again, so scary. If the price dropped further, the next wave of price drop would have due. My Cloud Mining Net Income would suffer further.

I got used to the drop

Well, I started get used to the fact that my mining income would be affected. But still, I believed Bitcoin should have its value after all. Wasn’t this a good mindset?

Good mindset gave me good rewards. I start to have mood to look at my projections made in mid-August. Oh, it seemed to be not that bad!

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471
2017/10/2	0.00245338	0.00074931	0.00170407	4404.0517

The Net Income dropped by only 22% between 8th Aug and 2nd Oct, not 50% I saw from the highest point previously. Looking at the Mining output, same 22%. I realized I should look more closely into my data!

The difficulties adjustment I experienced since day 0 were 4 times at that point.

% left of the Mining output after 4 difficulties adjustment:
1 x (1-7%) x 93% x 93% x 93% = 74%

My Mining output should have decreased by 26%, but the actual daily Mining output reduced by only 22% at that point. This is better than my projections in Mid-August. Even I experienced double impact from Price drop and output drop, it was still better than my original estimates.

Then, I used a more stupid calculation method that ignored price changes and mining difficulties, by multiplying the 1st day Net Income with days:

2017/8/8
0.00219432 x 55 = 0.12068760

My actual accumulated Net Income is 0.12239545. This means even my idiotically positive estimation were lower than what I got at that time.

I felt great, and feeling great until now. My negative mindset went away completely, had more energy for Steemit writing. A good mindset turns to good outcome because I escaped from unnecessary worries and can focus on writing better Steemit Story.

I saw many Bitcoin favorable factors.

Since then, I was able to see some Bitcoin favorable factors that had been ignored. On 3rd Oct, although price was still dropping, I see things differently.

1st, the market saw support at the lowest point at around $3000, the next pull back should have support at that point. The China influences has been completely irrelevant because China has used all the ways they could influence the market, but price of Bitcoin could still manage to get back to the price before the ICO Ban. I saw this positive because there would not be any negative factor from China that can significantly influence the price of Bitcoin anymore.

Key Take Away

I have learnt 3 things:

Positive thinking is extremely important. It helps you to get out from the dark.
The market always changes more than people expects. Proper projections with multi-variable inputs can help tackling panics.
The reaction of the market can be exaggerated. We often need better insight to avoid overreacting that causes losses.

I know, I am only lucky.