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RE: Bitcoin Has Not Yet Fundamentally Recovered At This Time – A Mathematical Case

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Really very very informative post. WOW! Please keep it up.
You have mentioned ==>"It should be noted that the accuracy of the models as presented in the paper was about 9% over the 8 years of data" - Does this mean that this accuracy rate is far below average and should be taken seriously...kindly explain this.
Also looking the way internet stocks and NASDAQ moved from 1995 till 99-2000 should we really be worried too much? Should we just ride this without questioning much? Specially when avenues of getting return is near zero for a common man. The only avenue which is stock market is now so much rigged that its a no brainier that it can crash anytime - non stop rally from nov2017.
I am very keen to know where can we get DAR (Daily Adoption Rate) data for BTC and all top coins. Is there any free site for getting such lovely analysis.
This DAR is based on addition of each new wallet address ? If yes should not VOLUME a bigger factor
Also I felt DAR is good for early stage but when INSTITUTIONs and hedge funds enter this game will not even one single wallet adress can impact BTC price significantly because of volume and value..

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That accuracy rate over 8 years means it deviates by that much over that span. Which is good correlation and means that within a year one would not expect that model to continue to deviate by much from the actual measured. Which was why in December after it had departed for nearly 3 months the call for a serious return to form in this invited blog: https://cointelegraph.com/news/2018-blockchain-and-cryptocurrency-outlook-expert-blog.

No we should not be worried but we should be reasonable about our expectations. The model showed bitcoin market value doubling every 288 days. Which is impressive! But when it nearky doubles within a month from Nov 2017 to Dec 2017 (10K to 19K) we check our expectations, especially when user adoption or any other metric does not nearly match that rise. And maybe not be surprised when it corrects significantly after. And we should also be prepared to slowly let go of bitcoins as the flag bearer for the blockchain space if its fundamental issues are not resolved (and they are still working hard on this right now with solutions like Lightning and we are still watching if Segwit will have any real impact.) In the end, technology and utility always wins out and that would happen as well in this space.

The DUA published on the link above is one place to go to for a sort of measure of DAR. Other measures such as transaction volume includes a lot of nonsense such as dice games and other automated transactions that does not solely capture daily adoption. I wrote a rough program to distill the DUA in real time from the blockchain some years ago and I plan to maybe publish its daily value, maybe here at some point. But even the 2 day lagged DUA from bitcoin.info should be good for a value investor just maybe not for day trading.