A great piece of organizing circumstantial evidence, @harpooninvestor, and I buy your conclusion, for a reason (adding to all of yours). From Day One the code code could not be so buggy that everybody would laugh at the loopholes. It was not, and that was probably because a bunch of guys were checking it out carefully before allowing it to go public.
Very nice, and cheers!
P.S. I am an experienced programmer, and know from long experience that once you let your program to go "work in the wild" it is likely to encounter combinations of data structures (or data volume) and logic quirks in your code that will give you heartache. So when they first went public a lot of testing was probably already done.
Good points all. Yes, it seems very likely they ran a lot of tests out amongst friends before releasing to the wild. Also, the hidden nature of "Satoshi" seemed all too-well planned, and that's something that alludes to Libertarians crossing with Cryptopunks crossing with those who think e-Gold might not be the answer. We remember reading about e-gold way back during the beginning days of the internet bubble (so 1998-2000 timeframe) and what turned us away, ironically, was the mistrust of a central authority who you'd have to send your hard-earned cash to participate. These particular guys would've thought long and hard about this problem, and it bares out in what Szabo et all wrote.
Szabo makes an excellent point, in that the intersection of the groups of people who COULD have designed bitcoin the way it was done, is very small. He practically names the people himself in his blogs.
Perhaps they realized that it would be easy to deny, even if the evidence piled up, and were comforted by the fact they could simply continue denying and no one would really care that much anyway due to the de-centralized nature of bitcoin itself.
Just think the most important thing, is just asking maybe Szabo and Dai what their bitcoin histories are. Not so much to determine who Satoshi is, but just bc it would be REALLY interesting. Finney, to our knowledge, has already answered this question (for instance, he says he no longer has that first payment). Just think it would be a REALLY interesting story if the guy who's proto-bitcoin idea sparked the whole thing didn't even have any bitcoin. We think Szabo has a LOT of bitcoin, and the reason is bc he alone more than anyone really believed in it from the getgo. With all his historical researching, it would be VERY odd indeed if he wasn't fat in bitcoin, thinking it would really take off. Also think he was shilling a bit in maybe 2011 doldrums and maybe again in early/mid 2015 when bitcoin was taking some flack. not so much for personal gain, but like Mr Lee, bc it was his baby (whether he's Satoshi or not).
Truthfully, we don't see any real way Szabo wasn't either Satoshi (sending payment to Hal, and writing to bitcoin.org after creation), or part of a small group calling themselves Satoshi (which most likely would have included Wei Dai and maybe Finney too).
We'd do a much bigger piece, to make it comprehensive, but don't think that's necessary bc incremental information keeps it small and limited to those who are still interested in the "big question"; and also bc we'd simply have to reference other's work which isn't ours and that takes a lot of time and doesn't really add too much value bc that work is already posted into the borg.
Glad you appreciated it, it's hard to know if you're just one of many assembling a piece of data, or if our work is original.
Speaking of deniability, one of the things that must of concerned was whether there was something buried deep in the laws which says that only government is allowed to create legal currency, and people offering alternatives would be faced with fines and/or jail terms! Even today we need to be concerned about this issue in various countries, some of which have already gone public to remind people that only the government is allowed to create currencies.
RE: “Just think it would be a REALLY interesting story if the guy who's proto-bitcoin idea sparked the whole thing didn't even have any bitcoin …”
COMMENT: That’s me. I was studying the technology, and even gave books to friends back in 2015, and all the time I never thought of buying any (for one thing I was "all in" at the stock market). My only wish was to use some bitcoin to send remittance payments to relatives and escape Western Union’s heavy fees. That was my only interest in Bitcoin; despite having a much better understanding of what was being promised than most people (due to my background). It’s only late 2017, i decided to get some!
However, as an old-time stock market trader, i know full well that even people buying in at $20,000+ today may get very rich off bitcoin in years ahead! So I’me very happy with just a few hundred already "thrown away" into buying some bitcoin!
Re. Szabo, it is a real lesson in history to hear him talk about money thousands of years ago. So he must have thought very deeply about what was involved.
What would be cute is someone making a movie (or even a documentary) in which Szabo (and the few around him) ARE fingered as being “Satoshi”; but with no legally binding trace from the documentary/movie to those particular guys. Max Keiser is also “rotten rich” with coins, so he might want to make such a movie.
Cheers!
The government is fungible, they will act in their own best interests always (which means their campaign-donors' interests). So expect them to rule bitcoin as they see fit, which means eventually bitcoin will be outlawed if it becomes too powerful.
So much for escaping Western Union fees; back then, yes, but now it's like $50 to send a dollar.
Our guess is the crypto-run is nearing its conclusion, so tread carefully!
Would happily watch that movie, bring it on.
RE your remark: “ … nearing its conclusion”, two points please.
Keep in your head the new rules that every transaction is a taxable event (I exaggerate but not by much), the forthcoming requirement that if you own as much as 1 bitcoin (or any cryptos valued at 10K+) you must report that “at the border”, and then revisit this video: .
What you see is incarceration for doing unregistered money trading when what the person was trading was officially declared to be not money.
It looks as if the Emperor has decided that I will be “death by 1000 small cuts”, instead of by a declared “exile to outer Siberia”, China having chosen the latter route.
So, your warning about “treading carefully” is 100% solid, in my view. It reinforces my decision to totally write off as a 100% financial loss the few dollars I have in cryptos. (Notice the word “financial”. There’s absolutely no learning or experience or networking loss here! It is a sure thing, I think, that the countries going this route are going to end up behind the technology eight-ball in due course. That is, unless we haven’t been all sent to the Great Beyond in the coming war.)
Second point, and more troubling. No matter who invented the block chain technology (and the linked applications of cryptography), its capture by The Powers will tighten our collective slavery big time. So I say that if God allows us to enjoy a few minutes each day, let’s go at it as much as feasible because “our days are numbered”.