Top 10 crypto currencies outlook for 2018

This is a follow up of this post if you need an introduction to the currencies:

2017 Top 10 Crypto Performance charts

As a refresher, these are the returns of the Top 10 crypto currencies in 2017

2018 Forecasts

Forecasting prices in the world of crypto ( and perhaps other markets ) is usually a fools errand and more art than science, so rather than set a fixed scenario I think it is a reasonable approach to divide it into possible scenarios.

Moon part 2, bullish Market

In this scenario,2018 is basically a repeat of 2017, so at the end of the year crypto in general has another great year, and at the very least cryptocurrencies repeat their incredible gains of 2017, if so, prices and performance would look like this:

I am the first to admit that this bullish scenario might not happen, but considering that 2017 wasn't even Bitcoins best year ( that'll be 2015 with a whooping 5,595 % return), I am not discarding it.

Crypto craters or tanks, bearish markets

The bubble bursts, the S&P finally crashes and takes crypto along with it, exchanges get hacked, a bug is discovered, governments ban crypto again. In general crypto has a very bad year, what would that look like ? Well without just guessing our best measurement comes from Bitcoins worst year ( 2014 -59% ). So I believe it is reasonable to expect those loses as a tentative conservative bottom for crypto in a bad year, you could also make a scenario where each individual currency backtracks its performance, but for now our generalized losses of our top 10 portfolio would look like this:

I believe the likelihood that this scenario happens should also be taken into consideration, you could say there are equal reasons for it to happen as there are for the more optimistic one.

Middle of the road returns, average markets.

In this scenario, 2018 is neither a bad year or a great year, it is just average, as such the price would simply be a mix of the worst and best performance scenarios already covered:

I personally like this scenario for a cautiously optimistic forecast or at least a sane baseline, it should be noted that at a 160-200 % returns for the lower performing currencies ,these are still incredible numbers by traditional Wall St type standards.

I'll give a final commentary in a later post, for now

Thanks for reading !