Whenever bitcoin is sliding, everyone likes to look for a reason as to why, myself included.
However, there may not always be a reason or sometimes there may be a multitude of reasons.
Basically, people tend to look for some form of comfort in times of extreme emotional stress, which is what often happens as people watch their hard earned dollars quickly slipping away.
Putting all of that aside, there does seem to be some real emotional reasons why bitcoin is sliding currently.
First you have the seasonality aspect.
What I mean by that is that over the last 3 years, and 4 out of the last 5, bitcoin has made lows in the month of January.
This is likely due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and also possibly some tax related selling.
For a little more on the first topic, check this out:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/february-16th-is-a-very-important-date-for-the-cryptocurrency-markets
Secondly, you have major governments around the world coming down somewhat hard on cryptocurrency exchanges and users.
Think South Korea, Japan, and now India all talking about tighter regulations within their respective countries towards cryptocurrencies.
More about that can be read here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/looks-like-no-crypto-trading-ban-in-south-korea-after-all-crisis-averted
It seems every couple of days there is some new negative headline in the press about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. That represents a much different environment than what we had a few months ago.
Finally, and likely most importantly, you have a bunch of FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) about what exactly has been going on with Tether.
After watching it's two major banks dissolve their relationship, as well as their auditor hightailing it out, and an investigation by the CFTC, combined with cries from the public about suspicious trading activity, there is certainly a fair amount of smoke around tether and bitfinex.
And as you know, where there is smoke, there is usually fire.
Add all that together and you get an environment that is just waiting for the next piece of negative news to drop prices even lower.
Here's the thing though, this won't last forever, in fact I would venture to say we are getting close to a bottom.
For one, we are getting closer and closer to the Chinese Lunar New Year. The exact date is February 16th, but historically most of the bitcoin selling related to that tends to dry up a few weeks before the exact day.
Also, every day that goes by gets us one day closer to people getting their tax returns back here in the US. When people who felt they missed out late last year start getting their tax returns, where do you think they may put some of that money?
Also, a lot of the chart technicians have been pointing to a move down to around $8k for some time now. They also indicate that is likely a bottoming out point as price finally finds significant support.
Also, even if Tether ends up blowing up and things are as bad as some people think, we are talking about a $2 billion dollar market compared with a $500 billion total market cap. Yes it is a big deal, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not that big of a deal.
And finally, if you look at the trading activity on Bitfinex you can see that the BTCUSD shorts now exceed BTCUSD margin longs.
This is the first time I have seen that... well ever.
This is a good indicator that many people are finally getting on the same side of the trade, which is what you often see before major market reversals.
Given all that information we may be getting close to finally seeing some green on our screens again.
Could all of this be setting up to create the perfect storm/buying opportunity?
No way of knowing for sure, but I feel much better buying here than I did buying on the way up at this same exact price.
**Full disclosure, I bought more BTC a few minutes ago around $8,900 to add to the others bought around $10,700. I will look to continue to add if prices continue to dip.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Source:
https://vinevillemethodist.com/2017/10/06/why/
Follow me: @jrcornel
thanks for the conversations, im out to set up my telescope. i heard the moon is around the corner tonight
HELP ME MY BITCOIN VALUE DYING
Really the only thing you can do (if you still believe) is HODL. Maybe take these next few days/weeks to shut down your computer and not check the price and get out and do something outdoors, likely you will feel much better a few weeks from now. :)
sage advice.
Let the hands do their jive.
Accumulate on the way down.
Reflect on which platforms have long term value based on 1) what is a blockchain 2) Why does the world need a blockchain for this purpose?
Stay strong it will grow back! Check the link below bitcoin has "Died" 249 times lol. Just adding this because I'm seeing it all over the news AGAIN!
https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/
FUD! 😂😂😂
Buy the FUD!
Great info. It's always interesting to hear other reasons to price movements. I study the charts along with Elliott Waves. I talk moving averages and other stuff in my latest post:
IMPORTANT COIN UPDATES - BTC, XVG, TRON https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/important-coin-updates-btc-xvg-tron
I actually just put a little more into Bitcoin! I agree that there's a huge seasonality aspect. The dip BTC saw last January was the lowest point it hit all year. My running hypothesis is that cryptos run counter to the January effect, which is when stocks tend to rally after the December selloffs you see. I think it's plausible that people are putting more money into equities from crypto coupled with - to your point - their fear of cryptos being investigated or the market being squashed.
Of course, even better news is that STEEM is holding up against the downtrends pretty well!
Yes, that might have something to do with the Binance exchange adding steem earlier today. ;)
I wouldn't read into too much. This might just be a healthy pull back.
"1 step back, 2 steps forward" or more like 10 steps back, 20 steps forward. Hopefully we are on that 10th step!
I agree, it’s been bad news so far this year but look to the positive. Exchanges are accepting new sign ups. They have increased staff and scaled back end servers. They are also signing up more and more new users. New apps are signing up to crypto every day. Apps like Robin Hood with millions of subscribers are making crypto available to their user base. Although this in itself won’t move the price, when it does move there are now millions more people able to jump on, accelerating the price increases and lifting it ever higher!!
Yep yep yep. Nicely put!
Bitcoin itself is also fundamentally weak right now. The only significant improvements to the protocol in at least 2 years was segwit. Lighting is finally coming out but it's still a big if.
All seem to be good points I like seeing that it's been a mostly consistent trend over the last 5 January's
GOING GREEN ALL THE WAY!
Does it have to get angry first before it can green?
If that is the feeling inside then, YES!
Aah the original hulk lou ferrigno :)
Voting power is low, I have been up-voting so much this week lol. I think at full power I am at 0.12cents .. Not much but I am getting there. Wherever that may be.
What is voting power? And do you get more of it if you vote more? Thanks
You can "power up" your steem. The more steem power the higher price of your upvoting.
Thank you for all this information jrcornel!
I'm a convinced cryptocurreny lover, and Bitcoin is one currency I'm buying at the moment.
In my opinion, this is just shaking the tree getting all the weak hands out. It will serve as a lesson to people who are just looking for an investment. Nothing wrong with that but it's a risky gamble. Now that is clear. Hopefully the people who are left holding are the ones who know that btc is much more powerful than an investment vehicle.
To me btc is a share ticket, gateway pass into the new economy. If you don't have a ticket, you are not getting onto the network. You will be willing to pay a lot more than 20k to get your hands on some in 10 years, just for the right to participate in the new economy. Early adopters are going to reap the rewards of forward thinking.
The banks in my country are beginning to clamp down the easy on ramps to crypto. It's not out of the relm of possibilities that soon you won't be able to use the banks to fund a ticket onto the crypto railroad. You will have to work for it.
I agree buy now not when it peaks.
This is some good information. I added at around $10,500. Think I am going to wait for my next leg in maybe see what happens Feb 16..Thx
I just read an article from CNN that explains pretty well why it declined. If you want, go and check my blog, I decided to share it with my followers for anybody that would be interested in the topic.
CNN has nothing good to offer as regards to crypto space.
CNN is the Collusion Nutjob Network. I don't trust a single thing they report. They are no longer a factual news organization. They just push their own opinions.
Unless major institutions etc. have a long position in cryto then you cannot rely on major media outlets to be positive about it....they report in the interest of the markets , and if the insttitutions are not IN yet then they will certainly not promote crypto but will try to drive it down
I respect your opinion. Each one of us prefers its own sources.
You are right. Pardon my manners.
Really good observation @jrcornel, thanks for sharing..
May be it's the right time to buy!!
Cryptocurrencies are very volatile.....will be interesting to see what happens to bitcoin in 2018....
I bought way at the top and have bought at the bottom as well but most important is for us all crypto investors to keep educating ourselves and able to manage our emotional responses. great analysis@jrcornel . lets keep buying the deep.
come on, governemnts of countries like India have very very negligible effects if any at all, you are giving them too much credit, haha amazing new world we live in. Any government government official anywhere in the world even using cryto in a sentence without having a clue what it s creates FUD and become worldwide celebrities overnight... lets just all get real for a second and enjoy yhe bargains bestowed upon us today,, omg... nothing amazes me anymore... hahaha I have to laugh...
Yeah, so far i have seen bitcoin will bounce back and in late march, april maybe a steep incline towards 12-13k, we will see ;-)
This time it wasn't different!
In fact today, early morning the Asian market took a nice upward trend, at approximately 3 am German time there was a lot of green to be seen. As Europe started trading red was dominating followed by an even harder hit as US followed. This would proof your position. I personally also got some BCC in stock and took my small share of WePower. I am still a believer!
You have BCC? Like Bitconnect?
Bitcoin Cash BCH bought some late yesterday, always confusing since Binance uses ticker BCC for this. Sorry
Hmm, I like your views in this subject and I think this is the best time to buy because it is sure that it will rise in value at some point. Anyways thanks for sharing
I really hope things get better soon, it hurts my heart but I know I just have to be patient
No worries ! This correction will look like small bump on the road.
This young market is just the beginning.
Hopefully there's a Fibonacci prediction in there, somewhere...
@jrcornel the decline in bitcoin prices resulted from the sale of bitcoin more than the purchase price. embraced me
you are the mind reader , you posted this at the exact time while i'm searching about! thank you sharing @jrcornel
I think this is a good opportunity to buy more. Thanks for sharing!
some people are making that to buy it low and sell it when it grow, so if you have bitcon just save it
nice photos
I have vote, vote back yes friend
The gas is leaking from the bitcoin that is why more countries are going to block bitcoin
In this crazy volatile crypto world, patience is hard but very needed!
well said!
Thanks for sharing @jrcornel. I believe that crypto currencies are here to stay and can only get better. No matter how tighter government regulations are or how the media give negative news, the crypto storm will come. I am glad to hear you investing more in bitcoins, I think that is the way to go.
People should use this chance to buy bitcoin before it goes up
If you are buying to invest in your future, it is best to buy the same amount every week, that way you catch all the dips and not have to worry to much in the long run
From what I read on Marketwatch, the Indian government banned crypto currency. I think they tried to tax it and it wasn't working so this was the next step. Whether or not they'll be able to enforce this is another issue.
Yea they didn't ban anything. They said they are going to regulate it and prevent bad actors from using it for nefarious activities.
Are they going to prevent bad actors from using cash/credit too? what a joke.
Yes. They severely restricted the amount of cash in the economy, they pulled all the big paper notes out and forced everyone into digital currency - so they can track everything that happens
Never thought I'd be expecting the Chinese New Year so eagerly :)
Speaking of FUD, I got the story about India in my FB newsfeed and it was presented as an apocalypse, complete with Breaking News alert!
Of course it was. Since fear is much more exciting than a non-event. :)
Thank you for the information. I want to know more about cryptocurrency and your posts made it a little more interesting. But I don't understand how it depends on the seasonality. Please help. Thank you.
https://www.networkworld.com/article/2291349/software/131411-Bitcoin-s-highest-highs-lowest-lows.html
@jrcornel
Checkout my Articl what is Bitcoin? And more about Cryptocurrency's information
Agree... I am still waiting a few more days before re-buying, maybe i wait too long, but i think buying at 8500 would be a very good price...
If we get there I'll be buying right there with you. :)
Yep, i think we are close to that buy point... After that i wont be buying more for some time no matter what happens next, i will just hodl...
Coin market is bleeding. What’s next? BTC to 15k or 4K? Wait and watch...
Thanks for shedding some light on the subject ... although I bought a tiny bit of bitcoin I'm totally ignorant regarding financial markets of any kind. Your **full disclosure has also given me some peace of mind. Perhaps I should buy some more at this stage.
I'm a beginner in cryptocurrencies, sorry if I write something dumb, but this is how I see It: Miners are pulling out because of whatever (taxes, regulations, etc.) now the bitcoin network has a hard challange because there are a lot of miners, if they pull out, there will be short time where the challange is still hard and not adapted to the weaker network of miners. At that time it will rise, because it's harder to get it. And when the network's challanges get weaker because of less miners, then the price will drop a bit. Please correct me if I'm wrong :)
The price is set by supply and demand. Mining difficulty follows the price, not the other way. In a scenario where a significant portion of the miners drop out of the network, the time between blocks (time to confirm a transaction) will increase. There is no direct relationship between the number of active miners and the price.
Good explanation, thank you!
I could see it dropping down to atleast 7k. If you look at the correlation between the maps from Jan 2017 and now it seems to be following the exactly same trend, if it keeps following bitcoin will drop down to atleast 7k but will rise to 30k by Summer.
Holding ETH, feeling good :D
How many days?
Good explanations, I think Bitcoin will go up again quite soon, getting stronger after each correction. The next bull run can start anytime.
Everything is in place for a big rebound and the big question is: will the options exchanges have any influence in tampering down a price surge.
@jrcornel, thanks for this analysis. I was actually looking for answers to some questions and this post has helped out. 👍
Thanks for this info
You helped me remove the fear from investing in crpytos. Will definitely do well to stop by latee
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If we don't see greens in the near future, we will see the dirt above us in a coffin..
I think the bottom is going to be around 8,000. But I think we'll be up to about 16,000 by April and maybe 17, 000 by May. I hope so anyway.
Well if that is the bottom, it may have already hit, saw about $8300 on Coinbase a few minutes ago. :)
Up to 15-16k by March or April is probable, but I think it more likely such a move would be followed by a retest of 10-11k.
Quick question where do you go for your price and trading info. Noob here looking for different perspectives thank you
Yes I agree that sums it up well! Bought small bits three times in the dips thinking it will level out, not yet it seems.