Since the SegWit2x proposal was suspended, bitcoin has been seeing some pretty rough price action.
After hitting a high just under $8,000 per coin, it retraced all the way down to $5,500 (ish) over the following days.
Since that time it has bounced fairly significantly off those lows, sitting currently around $6,500 per coin.
The question now on everyone's mind is...
What will Bitcoin do next?
I'm glad you asked!
For some clues as to what bitcoin might do next, the first thing we can do is look at bitcoin's previous trading history and see if there can be any kind of patterns gleaned.
What do you know, there is a pattern indeed!
If you look at the trading history of bitcoin throughout this past year you can see that each time bitcoin has dropped by 20% (or more), it has rallied by 62% (on average) over the course of the following 4 weeks.
Check out the data:
In the more immediate term, we can see that every time bitcoin has fallen by at least 20%, we can see that it rallies roughly 28% over the next 2 weeks.
Yes, I know that this is a small sample size, but it's interesting never the less.
It remains to be seen what happens this time as bitcoin has fallen by more than 20%, but so far the price action seems to be lining up right along with those averages.
The bull rages on!
Bitcoin has been on a major bull run all year.
I would imagine any kind of positive developments regarding the scaling debate or any positive news about futures products being officially launched before the end of the year could be the catalyst for the start of the next bull run.
In the mean time I am hoping we see a bit more consolidation back down to the $5,000's before I put more capital to work, but that may just be wishful thinking on my part.
We will see!
Hope you enjoyed this little stat and make sure you make your own trading decisions, never based solely on what you read here.
Stay informed my friends.
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Will bitcoin bring a smile to the faces of investors again with this huge drop?
I'm hoping for a consolidation as well. I have some buy limit orders in ranging from $5400-6000. Friday seems to be the down day in cryptos, so I will wait and see what happens friday and readjust my orders if need be. Good luck!
Maybe I am optimistic, but I am hoping for a retest of those lows around $5,500, maybe even all the way down to $5,000 (ish). The longer it holds up here though the less likely those numbers look to me.
I completely agree with you. That is why I will give it until this weekend and readjust my trades accordingly. Just need a little patience and some luck. I can't believe that I think BTC in the $5000's would be a good "buy" price. Life moves fast in the crypto world. I remember buying sub $1000's...
Haha yes! I remember buying some around $4200 and was really wondering if that was a good spot to buy... A few weeks later it had doubled. :)
It will hold steady for a couple weeks and then continue its upward trend in my opinion ☺ great post only time will tell the story , followed
That kind of price action would fall right in line with the other 4 times it had a similar drop this year. :)
It's so volatile that even if you begin to guess anything , the dynamics change all of a sudden.
That is a good point. Plus there is the whole debate as to which is the "real bitcoin" at this point...
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The high volatility seems to be an embedded factor. I too find myself uncomfortable with that but big gains might be ahead of you. Play safe but... you gotta play!
Interesting analysis, especially the previous drops. Having been involved in this space for the past 7 years or so, I have held through thick and thin (having regretted selling most of my btc during the massive run up to 13 dollars in 2011!!). Its been emotional.
Looking at the big picture this was only a small bump. You need to look at the trends in % opposed to $. We only drop 20% or so. Thats just noise. The overall trend is up.
If it reaches 5k I will buy some more. Im not a smart man so I just hold for the future.
I confess I'm a little divided between the continuity of bitcoin evolution and the surge of ethereum to new unprecedent higthts, because until now bitcoin was mostly being used by people who wanted to by or pay for services that are already on the market and don´t have blockchain roots. And now we are starting to witness a rapsody of blockchain based companies, all of them using ethereum as the mother coin.
Considering the supply and demand rule, there isn't much of a demand for bitcoin in this new market of ICO's followed by the correspondent blockchain companies entering in the market.
Not to mention the transaction fees that are reaching ridiculus values. On a world that people and companies always seek for the cheaper, fastest and safer, I guess bitcoin is getting behind the "competition".
What do you think?
Thanks @jrcornel for this post, amazing work in calling peoples atention to this matter.
Keep on!
I belive bitcoin's chart might drop a bit but between two weeks- four weeks bitcoin will make its new high.
People who say bitcoin cannot hold above $6500 DON'T KNOW THE REAL POTENTIAL ABOUT BITCOIN AND BLOCKCHAIN how badly they could disrupt the market.
Thanks for the article !!
Thick when will only continue to grow expecting a two thousand percent increase within the next year or two it will achieve 10,000
I'm actually trying to sell my BTC but these transaction fees are insane! I'm not paying ~$30 to send my coins. These huge price fluctuations are too much and I want to be invested in more coins with faster tx times.
That's one of the main problems why people dislike Bitcoin... It's impossible to send small amounts because the fee can even become more than 100% of the transfer amount. Only way to think is to make more profits on a exchange than is double the network fee and then dump and forget.
Bitcoin will continue to grow ! It's just a little break.
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Bitcoin still likely to hit $10,000 by end of year. In a few weeks (or days) it will restabalize about 7000 and people will realize that it was manipulation that gave BCH its run and that people holding BTC are what keeps its value. I see $20,000 for BTC in the near future, maybe by summer of 18.
Thick when will only continue to grow expecting
At this point it does seem unstoppable barring government intervention... Thanks!
Bitcoin will continue to grow. I have my predictions right. You'll look back on this day at the end of December.
Good
CME group is adding bitcoin products http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html
It's already going up again and may go beyond its initial price before it dropped.
It is hard for me to even think again of the Bitcoin dropping to 5000$ after all it been through with its SegWit2x being canceled and BCH hard fork going on, and still the price didn't went below 5.5k
I'm biting my nails, I'm on pins and needles!!!
Really informative post with some numbers behind it to back up your point! Not exactly rock solid but no-one knows what the market is going to do at the end of the day. I'm bullish long term, on to $10K and beyond!
I think the price is going to 12K soon. I say this because of the CME exchange and that The Big Bang Theory will have an episode about Bitcoin on 11/30. Mass adoption is very very close.
I don't know, I'm always skeptical towards statistics. Saying it Bitcoin always bounced back right after 20% dips does not provide any certainty it will do this again and again. As always, no one has the crystal ball otherwise we would all be millionaire.
I've just approached the cryptocurrency world and it's amazing how much volatility these currencies have: this means big gains but also big losses.
I may sound like an old, bitter investor (actually I am, as looking at year long graphs makes me feel like I've lost golden trains) but I would play it safe: invest what you can afford to lose, keep reading news, ride the wave, pull out on warning signs.
Good job my friend
Bitcoin will always recover as there is no better choice for a coin to move cryptocurrency between smaller exchanges that only support Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. Withdrawing cryptocurrency as fiat has been made really hard due to all the regulations and needed paper work. These companies who run exchanges seem to forget Europe has moved mostly to paper-free environment where everything is stored online as bits.
I would expecting the current bull rally to be even more quick. Trading bot are making money and social engineers are hard a work trying to convince as many people as possible to invest in BCH making money off of them. At least that's how I see it.
There's also all the trading bots trading with altcoin that are part of how the markets are currently acting. Things are looking good obviously.
That being said I keep most of my BCH. I'm playing prudent rather than going for it all and risking all.
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Thanks @jrcornel! I'm rather optimistic about Bitcoin and also think it will go the up again. Thanks for sharing these stats!
Historic data shows that bitcoin has only way to go - up.
But, it's only this year that we're having too many forks and FOMO driven price action (bitcoin cash, bitcoin gold, segwit2x, China ban, Jamie Dimon) and I think this kind of frenzy must stop and some amoutn of sanity driven rise is needed. Plus if we're looking at Bitcoin as a real alternative currency, how would one even feel like using it with this amount of volatility? You'll end you just having hodlers and not users - one guy selling it ot another guy for a higher price and he selling it to a third person for an even higher price and and that's how bubbles are created...
Good post.
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Thanks. I got a basic knowledge of the behavior of btc from your post.
Hi jrcornel,
Nice work sir