For months now, Bitcoin has gone basically one direction, up.
There had been minor corrections along the way, in both September and November, but nothing really significant since August.
That all changed last night when Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies plunged by as much as 40% in less than 12 hours.
That is by far the biggest move down in that short of time that we have seen in months.
What caused the drop?
Well, like many dips in the past, the specific cause isn't always clear.
Some are speculating that it had to do with the hacking of the South Korean crypto exchange Youbit. Where roughly 1/5th of the exchange's holdings were stollen by hackers.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/20/technology/south-korea-bitcoin-exchange-closes/index.html
The exchange immediately became insolvent following the hack.
Some other speculations had to do with the drama surrounding the bitcoin cash inclusion on Coinbase, which saw prices briefly reach $8,500 within minutes of enabling trading on the coin.
Trading was immediately halted and a more "normal" roll-out was done hours later, which still saw prices of bitcoin cash climb by roughly 100% from its pre Coinbase addition prices.
Much of that price appreciation came at the expense of bitcoin, as it's price dropped by roughly the same amount that bitcoin cash's price gained.
The most likely cause for the drop?
This is my opinion, but I would say the most likely cause for the drop was a combination of the above and also something else... something a little more sinister.
I think there was big time price manipulation going on.
I think there was price manipulation going on during the runup in prices and I think there was price manipulation on the drop we are currently seeing unfold.
According to a report released a few days ago, roughly 40% of all the circulating bitcoins are owned by roughly 1000 investors.
These investors are mostly made up of wealthy individuals, some institutions, and some hedge funds.
Given the large percentage of the asset they hold, it would not take much collussion on their part to really affect prices.
For example, if just a couple of these guys (or hedge funds) got together and decided they were going to get involved with a wash trading scheme in order to walk prices up, it really wouldn't be all that hard.
Plus who is to stop them? There aren't really any regulators policing this kind of activity.
The scheme:
Basically, the way it would work is that a couple of these large holders would just start trading back and forth among themselves, creating the illusion of heavy trading volume.
In doing so, they could also walk prices up or down via wash trading.
So, the net effect would be increasing prices and steady (high) volumes all the way up.
The increased prices would draw in retail investors/traders and also draw in the media which starts blasting stories on bitcoin 24/7.
Then when prices get "high enough" and there is enough outside money entering, these large holders start to dump some of their positions on the newly invested retail players.
Driving prices down, quickly past where retail entered, causing retail to panic sell and further drive prices down.
The net effect becomes a plummeting bitcoin price.
Then, when prices get low enough, which in this case was roughly 50% off the highs, the big players show back up and buy up their positions again.
Rinse and repeat.
This kind of thing becomes even more profitable when you factor in the futures/options markets where these large players could have also bought puts and sold calls before they drove prices down, thus making even more money on the move.
I can't say for sure that this is what is happening, but to be honest, I would be surprised if something like this wasn't happening.
Greed is a very powerful motivator... and if something is wreckable, it will be.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Sources:
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-manipulation-centralized-exchanges-seems-coordinated/
http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/bitcoin-price-suffers-behind-scenes-manipulation-intensifies/
Follow me: @jrcornel
Thank you for posting
Once Wall $treet gets involved, it's game over. They are masters at these tricks and the crypto space is virgin territory for them.
Totally agree. This looks too coordinated. Plenty of alts and BTC all drop at the same time pretty significantly, and then the whales pick them back up at low prices. This has been going on for awhile, but now the drops look bigger due to the higher prices in the crypto world.
I just donated some blood, sold a kidney and sucked an old guys dick to get some cash to buy it when it was at $20k!
At least it will be worth more than a cheeseburger. 😂😂
Great analysis @jrcornel.... In regards of Youbit hack, some people said that hackers cashing out the the money thus driving the market down. Bitcoin vs bitcoin cash drama is just began, we might see a lot of people dump bitcoin and convert it to BCH (nowdays there are massive campaigns to replace bitcoin with BCH) and this could also drive the market down. Profit taking, pump and dump, and also the opening of bitcoin futures at CME & CBOE give new opportunities for hedge funds to play it. A lot of whale investors with billions dollars of money come to this sector. All of these have contribution to the market and give domino effects & panic selling. I guess we will see a lot of volatilities like this in 2018..... so take a deep breath & continue to be rational.
That could certainly have been part of it, the hack and selling of the ill gotten gains. Although a lot more money was coming onto the markets than just the amount stolen from Youbit, which makes me think it was a combination of things, with a lot of manipulation. :)
Indeed great analysis...
Totally agree, there are few mega-whales that doing with the market whatever they want...
This is why I switch to HODL, you can't predict anything... It is less about technology, more about their games.
Yes - the futures market and extensive visibility has brought in the big dogs. Sometimes they play hard. They will weed out the dump money entering the market. This will be a good think in the long term.
@jrcornel definitely multiple problems all adding to the crash but here is a quick recap; youbit hacked, etherdelta hacked, coinbase insider trading, bitcoin futures, net neutrality, new tax plan, charlie lee selling all his ltc, and i'm sure there is more!
Christmas?
But seriously, one more round and get out? Will it go slower or faster this time? I'm betting on LTC, EOS and maybe BitShares, Bitcoin Cash and Dash...
Very interesting. I know people who almost invested when it was 40$ a pop. Oh how rich they'd be now!
Spot on - it's also worth pointing out how SMALL the crypto market actually is in terms of market capitalization - it's a pittance compared to the figures some of the world's largest financial players operate in terms of.
Thanks for raising this! It's quite concerning...
"What goes up, must come down."
-- Isaac Newton
Only on this earth my friend, newton had no clue about what can happen in space ;-).
BTC finally reached the moon this year. Now it's heading back to refuel & heading to Mars. #BTCtoMars
My theory is that a lot of people pulled out for the holidays. you'll remember that many currencies went down about this time last year. I can't confidently say that these people aren't doing what you suggest, but there may be other factors.
Great post @jrcornel. I also read somewhere on Bitcointalk that the interview with Roger Ver might have had some impact on the current drop in Bitcoin. Not sure if this is the reason but these guys have the influence.
I hope you don't mind me sharing your post in my Steemit Facebook Group. People need to know the reason why this happen https://www.facebook.com/groups/steemitkings/permalink/1835492263408571
These guys are just playing the market because they can , you don't need many bitcoins to play this game. We now also have gov's and banks in it (all want to buy cheap BTC so that they can control it). Keep some liquidity up your sleeve there will be more dips coming up soon.
Note: Please do your own research before making any financial decisions.
Yeah I know. Its really scary to know that these people hold so much power over the price of Bitcoin. I might be wrong about this but it seems the first wave of the reverse elliot wave have begun. I think you're right. Bitcoin might drop even further. Perhaps till the $8k mark. I am keep mostly cash with the hopes of getting Bitcoin at a cheaper price.
It could just be the time of the year and people are taking profits along with panic selling we could have a major bounce
There is no market that is so easily manipulated as the crypto market. Although the manipulations sound terrifying this can actually create more opportunities for the common investor/trader than in classical assets.
In my opinion one of reasons BTC crash started is Jeff Berwick openly talking about problems BTC have (fees & slow operating). Just after he released his show Anarchast where he talked with someone from Bitcoin Cash, BTC gone rapidly down and BCC up 40%
This is very clear that whales are playing with the market,, but I believe BTC will not be less than $10k.
If ever it touches $10k It will rise more and touch at least $25k at the beginning of the year,,
some Christmas magic will be there besides the new year will bring something new for sure
What I really expect it's a rise of steem price.
I agree with you..but i won't call it xmas magic.....although apart from the manipulation u would expect a massive withdrawal this xmass plus a massive reinvestment in the new year period...maybe not massive per say...
Thinking there is considerable incentive for earlier investors to wait until after 12/31/17 to take profits due to the new tax laws. Maybe another dip coming in early 2018?
Correct, they are manipulating the markit, once they have enough BTC they will be playing the same game as they do with fiat markets. So everyone hold on tight to your BTC. If you don't have one then try to get to atleast one BTC. There is a chance now with these dips to get cheap BTC. But you need liquidity up your sleeve because they will be playing with whole crypto market and will make it very hard for your fiat currency to get to exchange during that window. Happy festive season.
That are very fair points, the market is unregulated so its possible to be able kind of schemes that affect the price of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin going down pretty much affects all the others coins, but i'm sure there will be rebound and prices will rise up to levels of yesterday.
I am also a victim of this case. I loss pretty much
Basically the same process that has been used on the gold market for years.
Buy the market up, Sell off.
Sell market down, buy up. (take a little thinking to understand this one! Making money whilst driving a market downwards.)
But manipulation of any market is easy if you have 'enough'
The art is spotting the movements, riding the waves & earning.
Difficult / sad part is when "mum & dad" jump in uneducated. (read DOTCOM boom)
It's clear that someone it's traying to manipulate bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
You seem to be spot on with the whales and how they pump and dump.
The same as they do on the actual market! Graphs are for suckers!
Thanks for the great analysis. In IMO this is closer to the truth and explains a lot.
Very interesting, never thought about it that way. I really hope this isn't the case, it will centralize Bitcoin if it was like that.
This drop was due to women not beliving in Crypto so men withdrew to prove and deliver some gifts :D
Haha nice, wish I was one of those men..
Coinbase was absolutely ridiculous about their release of BCH
very good your brother publication
There's manipulation in all markets: forex, stocks, bonds and now cryptocurrencies. As small retail traders, the best we can do is always be prepared. Have a plan before you invest. Some questions that all investors should ask themselves before buying any cryptocurrency.
As the saying goes "if you can't beat them, join them!". Trade with the big boys and enjoy the profits!
I think that will there were some events around the market downfall, this was all orchestrated by speculators. They drove the price up at a level they would have big gains than they started to sell. Of course the sold also with dropping prices but up until one threshold... But the funny thing that they just initiated the movement, the market kept the trend, the investors panicked, they started to sell, the proce dropped higher and now the speculators started buying again but keeping the price as low as they can.
Thus, while they win big, they fill up back their cryptos balances and can repeat this at another time.
Btc has crashed down and bcc is growing by 40%...
But btc has crashed for a short time, recovery is soon...
Solid opinion. A little nerve wrecking to think I am playing against these large asset figures.
Bitcoin had lost nearly 25% of its value over the last 24 hours. And the price of most major "altcoins" fell even further, with losses ranging from 19 to 35%.
We remember that Bitcoin could not hold long the threshold of $ 20,000 - a threshold it could have exceeded last Sunday, the space of a few hours.
Futures contracts offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which allow institutional investors to speculate on Bitcoin, also recorded a sharp decline. They traded between $ 13,520 and $ 13,570, while their courses had exceeded $ 20,000 when they arrived on the night of Sunday to Monday.
Definitely one of the causes is that .... The other is trusting too much the crypto markets ... I was feeling that the bitcoin will fall and never reach 20k ... Beeing to valuable it will be hunted for sure.... Lucky me I got out my little amount in time . Btw , thanks for the information, brother . Cheers !
I think it just the normal way bit coin goes up and comes down but in the end it with comes up even better
Exactly! It is Wall Street and futures contracts. Just my 2 cent opinion.
Rinse and repeat buddy :). Agree with you completely. Normal people dont realize how easy these sort of things are. I also believe big gov. And central banks have had there hands wet in crypto for years. Plotting how they can maintain power. Ty for another great article, cheers.
Yes, I think manipulation is the main reason
With the recent big run of Bitcoin, it's drawn in a lot of mainstream media attention, and therefore a lot of new money. The thing with new money is that it's often invested without any form of research being carried out. That makes it very easy for the old-timers to manipulate these new hands into behaving how they want them to behave. A domino effect of this is seen in panic selling.
Still, I think this correction is due, and it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks.
Bitcoin is just like a pinball machine. The ball bounces around, goes up, sideways, set off lights and gives you bonus points. In the end however the ball is gone and the game is over!
"I can't say for sure that this is what is happening, but to be honest, I would be surprised if something like this wasn't happening."
You have said it all Sire!
It is for the time being it will really raise again let's hope for the best
HODL
I love reading your blog, I love it very important blogs for Bitcoin users
You have studied the market pretty well, yeah that is making sense.. manipulation by big players...
JP Morgan did that FUD and buy the dip on fibo 61.8% retract last time, whereby newbie were seing their investment freshly made is floating on red ocean...
Myself looking at previous dip and gain, care less this time and steem on, working my way to accumulate steem as much as possible before the hurricane of steem exploded to wide market... :)
It’s just a combination of everything. I’m sure they’re are a handful of whales out there scheming but my guess is that there were a bunch of stop loss orders that got set off by the bcc sale.
You are the best @jrcornel
The price down was long coming and we expected this, but never thought this much drop in a short period. But this will be temporally the best thing is to HOLD.
great post @jrcornel
Cheers!
up and down up and down
People you have to wake up and start fighting for usability of bitcoin.
Without that it is going to disappear
No offense, but are you kidding, happy to give you my wallet address if you don't know where/how to use your BTC (I am sure you got none)🙃.