After a rough day yesterday, some feel good stats are warranted today
Bitcoin got absolutely crushed yesterday.
It dropped close to 15% in roughly 30 minutes, enough to scare even the most seasoned bitcoin traders.
I wish I could say that drops like that are the norm for bitcoin because they sure feel like it, but actually big drops like that are becoming more and more rare as time has gone on.
Don't believe me?
Check this out...
Below is a list of the number of days bitcoin has fallen by more than 10%:
2011 - 17
2012 - 6
2013 - 17
2014 - 4
2015 - 6
2016 - 1
2017 - 8
2018 - 9
2019 - 2
As you can see there seems to be a trend of decreasing big drops as time has gone on.
Yes, it is harder to move prices in percentage terms when they have 5 digits attached to them compared to when they are single digits like in the early days...
But... it is still interesting to take note of and something investors care about either way.
(Source: https://www.wccq.com/todays-feel-good-story/)
Furthering the feel good story of the day...
Check out the price of bitcoin on this day since creation:
2010: 6¢
2011: $4
2012 $12
2013: $129
2014: $410
2015: $235
2016: $602
2017: $3,776
2018: $6,430
2019: $8,453
(Source: ~~~ embed:1176870701984342016) twitter metadata:Umh5dGhtdHJhZGVyfHxodHRwczovL3R3aXR0ZXIuY29tL1JoeXRobXRyYWRlci9zdGF0dXMvMTE3Njg3MDcwMTk4NDM0MjAxNil8 ~~~
It was only lower than the previous year one time on this date.
It's basically been higher year after year all the way up.
Regardless of what happened yesterday, bitcoin is still one of the best performing assets in human history.
For that to change now would be to utter that fateful investing phrase that has ruined many a portfolio...
"But this time it's different"
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
sometimes I think people do a big sell to active all the sell stops that are just below resistance, causing more selling, then they go buy less expensive Bitcoin.
if they combine this with short selling, especially with leverage, it's possible for someone with a large Bitcoin position to make money on a drop like this.
Yep, I agree. The charts had been compressing for months and the volatility was at 9 month lows. There was a ton of stop loss orders just below the market prices. All it took was a little nudge to get those to start to trigger and once that happened it kind of fed on itself, selling begetting selling! :)
it is really the good story... especially for crypto users. its like adding value to your saving everyday! thanks for the technology!
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I am not sure exactly what you are saying here, but it sounds nice, so thank you! :)
I picked up 0.2 BTC at $8400 this morning. I don't know about you but I was pretty happy about that.
Yep, that is a good buy. I picked up a little at 8,500 on the way down yesterday. I am mostly done buying more at this point as I have all I can afford. I really thought we were ready to take off after the pullback from 14k to 10k and then consolidated around 11k-12k... wish I would not have bought those. Though hopefully in the long run it won't matter much.
I also bought around 0.4 BTC between $10k and $11k...I try to buy $1000 - $2000 of BTC / month. I did that since it was back in the $3k level but stupidly I sold them after it first jumped over $5k because I thought it would dip back down again before going up. Moral of the story...just buy and hodl!
Ha, that is exactly what I did. I basically bought BTC all the way down in 2018 when it was dropping, got my cost average down to about 5k or so... then when it finally ran I was all out by $6k, thinking we would get a pullback at that level. Nope it shot up to $14k, mostly without me except for a few small scalps here and there. That wasn't fun...
Sometimes they say: "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Yes, there are many ways to produce misleading conclusions, but damn, the field of statistics is so important!
Statistical knowledge helps to reduce your vulnerability to emotional conclusions from days like yesterday. So thanks for the numbers.
Yep, I have heard that phrase as well and I agree with it. You can pretty much make stats say anything you want them to say.
That is pretty interesting for the amount of times bitcoin has fallen below 10%.
That sort of gives me additional confidence that things probably won't fall as low as a lot of people are calling for. Like $6,000 levels.
I was able to pull off a decent trade before that drop with 1 BTC and when the bottom fell out I gained 0.156 BTC and then converted it to Ethereum for now. I just had a feeling that we would get dropped on our heads again. I didn't want to risk my alt positions.
If it falls to like $7,000 I will likely inject more fiat.
I am expecting it to hold up around $8k, but we shall see. I was calling for this drop a while back, but since it never happened I was thinking we might be ready to go up without needing it. No luck...
Super interesting it's only been lower on the previous year 1 time. I would have never guessed that especially when people feel like the bear markets lasted forever. Makes you realize how short term focused most people in crypto are.
Yep, though I am sure if you pick a different date, those numbers don't quite work out like that. Though I would bet a lot do.
Nice stats! Since day 1 bitcoin never went back from where it started. I guess the bear market is only temporary, bitcoin has nowhere to go but up. It is the future.