I just listened to another guy saying much the same, and he blamed it on the Futures.
I looked at the chart and I'm saying much the same (see below), in part for different reasons. I did a Fibonacci and it landed us at $9500 a week ago... so I'm waiting for Bitcoin to fall, blaming the situation mostly on the Ripple run (I took part in it five times, and I had difficulty cashing in my profits twice, so I'm out now - it was a very bad experience).
I've been waiting for Bitcoin to bottom out, and it's sure taking its time. People were talking 6000 and 8000 (Mike Novogratz refused to commit 500 million investment into BTC before Christmas, hinting at/hoping for 8000), while others were more conservative or even positive. Now we will have to think about the Ripple Rage, and if that stops... then we may rise and shine
But now, we're still going downwards and there's this possible Head-and-Shoulders scenario that I wanted to make you aware of, the Mac is pointing downwards... My philosophy is always to earn about 10% per week and more if that can be done without danger, and avoid losses of above 5% - if I miss out on a run, so be it... if I can't buy the absolute bottom, so be it. I guess i'll just wait this out for another day.
And on January 1-3, some fresh money should start rolling in - if Ripple dips (and it's showing signs), then it will happen earlier.
PS the green line is a trend line I drew from a low on November 03 to the recent low - it may be the support line that keeps us from finally going lower, dammit. Happy New Year !
Great analysis !!! have you noticed how the RS subdivide in another H&S ? If you go down in timeframe you can easily find 3 H&S with RS being also a H&S. About 10k$ should be a first bottom than can be broke to another 8k or even(worse case scenario) 6k$ bottom. Looking at the charts and trying to extrapolate how the price will fall put us to the 1-3 january ... Besides of that there is also maybe some people who want BTC go down to buy cheap before some big money get involved in it next month ... Some bankers/investors are very 'bearish' in saying that bitcoin is dangerous or a bad investment last week without good reason to do so especially now (Novogratz is obviously not one of them because he's just saying that the market is not good to launch his stuff and that's true).
There was a slightly smaller H+S before this one, too -directly after the big dip, but they don't always resolve it seems - instead, the price rose because of incredible volume...
I read an analysis today that went as low as $5500.
I think there's a play to replace Bitcoin with Ripple, but I have't the slightest idea how far such a conspiracy would realistically go - in theory, it would have started with the cancellation of Segwit2x, and the following BCH coup attempt. Then, once Bitcoin went for the latest correction, another attempt immediately followed and then they pumped Ripple, to make all the dumb money flow into that via sheer greed. If they manage to establish Ripple as the biggest coin, Bitcoin might become just an altcoin for the general public... and the banks have won a victory.
But all of that is a bit much, it would take some dedicated thinkers who can actually make it work, it's a bit like assuming that 911 was a planned Pearl Harbor Event created to enable the 'War On Terror,' so the Near East could be plausibly destabilized in the name of Save-the-Petrodollar humanism for a mix of Saudi, Israeli and NATO interests (which conveniently fit into the Wolfowitz Doctrine), and that Osama Bin Laden was merely a fall guy who could never have pulled this stunt alone. See what I mean - totally ridiculous, just a conspiracy theory ;)
It's not as if world power or big money would kill or cheat to reach their goals - they always act morally ! Knowing this, nobody in their right mind would even consider such thoughts...
Let's for the time being stay with the assumption they're only talking it down... like Novogratz, who's basically a straight shooter but would of course also like low prices.
But if Novogratz decides to NOT invest in Bitcoin any day soon, that's when I would start to reconsider...
In any case, I'm out of Ripple and into Stellar Lumens (XLM), though not with much at this time.
Wow, the replies section has become more interesting and informative than the post itself! Really great reading and thinking contributions here, totally unexpected.
I was thinking the same thing when I saw the sluggish volume around 13K. I got out and lost around 15%. Putting hope in Etherium to get it back for me…
I had gotten out at 14.5 k after being careless one night and NOT saving funds in fiat while sleeping... maybe 12% (but that's relative because I recall getting out at 16.6k when the great fall began and rebuying at 13.5... so it went up to 16.5k again and I felt I lost when it went down to 14.5, that's what I mean by "relative" - I didn't exactly lose money but I felt cheated when I should be grateful for the learning experience, a typical human failure) - I recovered that by trading Ripple till there started to be definitive sell walls again and again, and I only wanted out, no more Ripple for me... in fact, servers were down - a sign of too many other fools thinking exactly the way I did... ETH ain't bad but I had also been thinking of buying bitshares (BTS), I need ETH to buy that anyway, using Blocktrades... but not sure yet. In doubt, stay in fiat. I'd rather not earn something than lose - but I have a small investment in Stellar Lumens and I'll hodle that I guess ;)
checkout stop loss orders
I saw quit a bit of buy order volume in the order book at 13,500 but was surprised it went down lower when I didn't see much sell in the order book.
Now it is back up to 14,000. I wonder where the sells come from because I don't see them listed as limit orders. Maybe there is software that monitors this stuff for people and places sell orders when there is a spike to keep the price from dropping too far.
There's all sorts of algos doing the buy and sell for whales, they usually work on the RSI up and downtrends, they are programmed to mind typical resistance and support levels and profit form them
I suspected something like that was going on. I did some work in C++ on a match server and I know how easy it would be to do that type of thing - but you have to know what you're doing as an investor to code successful algorithms.
Great breakdown, can't disagree with any of it.
I wish you could ;)
Thank you for the analysis as always jojo. While I trade, I don't do so with profit % targets and only take chances when I think the odds are stacked in my favor. Despite the rally, I still suspect Bitcoin might head lower especially if we see volume start to pick up on downside. However, Bitcoin breaking above $13,750 again is an interesting event that I didn't anticipate to happen so easily, so will be interesting to watch over the coming few days.
Nobody anticipated it, but so far my green line held... however we're not done yet.
As this is a game of nerves, we may now have shaken out the deserters - but never the algos.
Interesting assessment! Sorry about your Ripple experience ;)