This is not professional advice, it is just my opinion; do your own research, yada yada yada. Now that the obvious has been stated, let me predict.
For the month of February (or most of it), the price will hover between $7,000 and $11,000 a coin. The early adaptors and hard core supporters aren't leaving. In fact, those who have been in the space for many years are "buying the dip". Savvy businessmen who see potential will also buy low. At the same time, the weak hands and skeptics have already cashed out some or all of their money. Some are waiting on the sidelines to see what will happen. If an upward trend becomes apparent, they might rejoin the game. If it remains depressed and goes lower, they might tune out. Others have been too hurt by buying high and are heavily influenced by talking heads calling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme that will go to zero; these people are out until — or if — Bitcoin becomes an everyday payment system which won't be for a long time.
Then comes February 16, 2018. Why is this day important? It is the Chinese New Year. Even though the Chinese government has implemented strict regulations on cryptocurrencies, the Chinese are buying up Bitcoin like crazy. In fact, the majority of the mining farms are in China. Sure, it was reported weeks ago about the Chinese New Year affecting prices. Many people need the money to travel to their hometown, to buy gifts, to... whatever. Why is February 16 important? Well, first of all, that is the actual day of the Chinese New Year. Just like Christmas in some western countries, Chinese citizens get a nice long vacation. Depending on the profession, an individual could get one to three weeks off. Even better, teachers and students often get a month off. Therefore, some of these vacations began over a week ago. In preparation for their travels, they need money and continue to need money until the actual festivities commence.
Furthermore, they are not just going to buy Bitcoin after the fireworks subside. They probably need to wait until their next paycheck. The vast majority of employees in China get paid on the tenth of every month. Hence, I predict around that time there will be a spike in price. Once the price starts going higher, more and more people on the sidelines will get back in. At the same time, some newbies will take a dive into the space. The spike, will not necessarily be a parabolic hockey stick like we witnessed in December.
All of this is contingent on unpredictable news. This week has been negative news after negative news. If the United States bans cryptocurrencies (just an example), it would surely negatively affect the price. At the same time, if the Lightning Network is running successfully, incorporated on popular wallets and ready to use, that would surely positively affect the price.
Most importantly, while everybody is looking at the price of their crypto investments, while understandable, it is important to remember why these projects are here. Once Bitcoin becomes a commonly used currency, people will obtain their monetary sovereignty. Once that happens and most people around the world have some Bitcoin, the price will be high and hopefully more stable.
Interesting article. Lot of factors will come into play the next few months that should help boost the price of BTC.
Thanks, cryptokristof. A couple of weeks ago, many articles came out about the effects of the Chinese New Year. The articles made it seem like it came and went. In actuality, people have been preparing for the holiday for weeks, and it hasn't officially started yet. If the Chinese New Year indeed affects the price, then February 16 is an important date. Maybe more importantly, the next pay date.
Actually, I think the Lightning Network will be the best thing for Bitcoin. I know there is a lot of controversy on how well it will work, but I think it will affect the price the most.