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BTC/USD https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qt6FuzcC/
I hope everyone was able to avoid making rash decisions last night if they were awake and staring at the charts. I know how tempting it can be to see big movements and feel the absolute day-trader necessity to make a big play. If you were smart in what you did and had reasonable expectations, you could have profited nicely and avoided blowing out your trading account. We sent out the signal to go long to 6300 last night once we saw the volume spike and the bounce off the .236 Fib forming two consecutive equal lows, with long wicks downwards indicating strong buying pressure, and compared those to the five previous six hour candles finding support towards the end of last week. This was a safe, 10x leveraged move that raked in 17% profit. I know so many people who perniciously kept their shorts open with high leverage, or tried to enter at the top of this movement because they thought we were off to the races with 12,000 BTC and got completely rekt. Oh well, that's why channels like this exist I guess.
So let's get to the scuttlebutt. Let me be clear, fundamentally this price movement changed nothing. The overall trend is still to the downside, we are still in a bear market as far as BTC is concerned. This was clearly the result of the burnout from Tether and Bitfinex. Sentiment around Tether has been melting down for almost a week now, and this is something I talked about in my videos last week. One of the theories that has been floating around that I feel is quite potent, is that the massive downwards drop of Bitcoin earlier last week was the result of certain individuals trying desperately to prop Tether up, selling their BTC off to buy Tether in an effort to stem the blood loss. Is this true? I don't know, but it has support on the charts and is a very interesting theory.
However, following this theory along to today's non-theory (read: fact). Regular traders finally lost faith in Tether, and just wanted to get it completely out of their portfolios to preserve their capital. So people began moving USDT off of Bitfinex and other exchanges like Binance to USD exchanges, and sold their USDT off for Bitcoin. This is what caused the massive spike in Bitcoin's price overnight. There is really no doubt about this. Then those same traders immediately sold that Bitcoin into USD or other cryptos and that is why in the course of a couple hours Bitcoin went up and then back down into the trading range we've been in for a week. That is why this changes nothing fundamentally about Bitcoin's price movement, or future. Nor does it change anything about Bitcoin's price from a technical perspective.
Looking at my six hour chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gpVRFuFW/
You can see that we wicked above the descending trend line that we had been following for the last few months, after breaking down from the larger trend line we had been following all year. That is the ascending trend line of the descending triangle we had been trading into for a large portion of 2018. It was because of recognition of this pattern we were able to preserve capital as a trading group and profit where other traders and Bitcoin holders watched their funds immolate upon the pyre of ignorance.
If you had been watching the charts, TD Sequential showed you that we price flipped, bounced off the .236 Fib level. This bounce told you to go long, and it was this signal that I posted to our premium subscribers. Then we wicked back down to the .236 again, giving you a second entry in case you were too stubborn the first time or off getting yourself a bowl of Cup Ramen for the night, and we just went straight up. We blew past the .382, where your first target should have been, and then we hit the .618 for the last target posted. Now the fact that we opened above it on the very next candle, I could see someone who was going to sit in front of the charts for the next six hours opening a position. You had so many targets above you if you were being careful. You had the descending trend line, you had the Kumo Cloud, and you had the .786 Fib as well as previous resistance levels. Congratulations to the entrepreneurial traders who took it upon themselves to trade carefully and hit these targets. If I had not been asleep, there's a possibility I would have done the same. However I'm quite happy with my safe profits.
Now, I want to point out why this doesn't change anything technical about Bitcoin. We were unable to close above the trend line. We're still bearish. Look at current volume. After that spike of individuals getting out of their Tether, there has been no follow through. We've established a new higher low on the six hour at 6345 (which was our .618 Fib) and we're looking for that to hold, yet we weren't able to get back up to the .786 Fib level. Now the current candle is a hammer candle so it's possible we may see attempts to stabilize price at these levels. However until we break above that ascending trend line and close above it, nothing has changed.
There is a possibility that uninformed investors seeing this spike and not knowing the correlation to the Tether meltdown will take this as merely signs of Bullish reversal, and dumb money could pour in. So there is a case for the long and the short potential here. Again, bearish until we break that trend line. In my eyes, nothing has changed until volume and price action shows me otherwise.
Also, look at VPVR. The highest level of volume is still at 6200 where all the BTC was traded. That means that the large majority of people bought their BTC haven't even sold off completely yet, not enough to move the volume level up to our current price levels at 6400. What happens when the market starts to dip, because all of those buyers are out of the market? There's no capital left for everyone who bought down at 6200 to purchase more BTC, unless they tear up their mattresses and put their savings into exchanges. That means there's a huge unpulled trigger of sellers sitting on the button. When they pull that trigger, we're right back to where we were. Also, as an aside, all the shorts that got squeezed having to cover definitely contributed to this price spike.
Sincerely,
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