Apologies for delay in posting. Very busy morning for me with clients.
Sentiment is very fidgety, especially during a bear market. It's often similar to a hypochondriac who panics at every possibility. The fact of the matter is that Wave IV for Bitcoin is still in play. It was going happen whether BTC did hit $5,083; because it was only a matter of when and where the Wave III top was going to be placed. The price rise we saw the past week was quite euphoric and sentiment took a major bounce upwards and so I patterned the H&S for a possible run to $5,083.
During the past week, I had written my prominent answer: Would I buy into this rise? And my answer was a resounding and consistent NO! That in fact, I would be proft SELLING into the rise, even if price went to $5,083. I've also written that waves 2 and 4 are often best to stand aside because their pathways have 36 possibilities making 1/36 chance of being right or about 3%.
The Head & Shoulders Bottom pattern is not yet invalidated but if prices decline further to $4,104, it will be. Today's drop is quite steep and fast. If in fact, BTC has started wave C down, the speed of its decline today fits its character as wave Cs are often fastest and deepest in the retracement. Also, current price of $4,220 is much below the Left Shoulder bottom of $4,327.
So, the ABC major correction towards C of Wave IV is still in the cards. This was never taken off the table as it would only have been delayed if prices kept rising.
The last thing to do is panic. Remember, even if you hodl through this, Wave IV shall end and after that the massive Wave V rise will take BTC to never yet seen levels of >$5,000 to $7,000. As I've shown quite a few times, Cryptos have a tendendcy to extend the fifth waves and if that is the case with Wave V; prices could well exceed $7,000.
So, don't panic. Trim a little if you want to get dry powder ready to deploy at the bottom of Wave IV. Depending on how you ladder, one can even deploy 1% of dry powder at every 50 point decline from now to the bottom of Wave IV. There are many variations to laddering that can fit your personality and risk appetite.
Here is Andreas Antonopoulos' take on today's price dumping:
@haejin Your knowledge sharing is greatly appreciated, I am learning a huge amount from your posts, thank-you very much.
I wish you MASSIVE profits!
Stigmatatata from Lake Titicaca!
So we can still go to 5000 if it doesn't come under 4100?
That's the H&S invalidation point. Yes, this could be a downdraft to get rid of weak hands before one more rise. Let's see what happens.
Cool. Thanks.
Also I think that many are upon the coming fall like us. It's not going to be easy to time this.
Hehe, this panic sell was the last straw for me. Ever since BTC started correcting on Sept 1st it's been extra stressful trying to trade during this corrective wave.
I decided to just close all my positions and completely cash out this morning. I'm going to take a much needed break from the charts, recharge, and play the patience game for a few weeks, or however long it takes to for the eventual C wave to play out.
I wish the best of luck to everyone that's sturdy enough to brave these stormy waters!
Perhaps we can see you at bottom of Wave IV fora fantastic re-entry.
That's the plan!
No need to apologise! tnx for the update ;)
thx for your analysis! very informative.
what type of client work do you do? im intrested
Sorry, top secret.
So is the correction you were stating in prior posts, or just a temporary correction where it will bounce back up to the high 4000 and then decline to the low lows?
I'll give 60% for teh H&S and 40% for the ABC Wave IV for now.
Only panic gets you corn holed!
Would you like a spatula? For your bunghole?
And I just ate lunch!
Yes, days like these can make many want to throw a brick at the monitor.
However, rising above that is doable, it only takes discipline and strategy.
Piccata? Titicaca! I am Cornholio! I need piccata for my bunghole!