)
SUMMARY
I've updated the Elliott Wave count as shown below. This has white wave 1 raised a bit higher but the destination remains the same. So, the key would be to count the subwaves of white wave (1).
I've added the channel lines for the impulse wave to blue (1). If the waves fit well within a channel, it's confirmation that there is an impulse in progress. This chart shows white wave (5) at $19,607. One consideration I'm giving is that once Bitcoin hits blue wave (1) and corrects to blue wave (2), the Altcoins might not and instead rise. This would be the situation if bitcoin to altcoins become non-phasic. What I mean by this is that when BTC corrects its cycle will be declining; however, if the cycle of the Altcoins are not decline but rather inclining. Let;s see what happens,
The below is an alternate count. There could be an expanded flat a,b,c correction where the b wave rises higher than the prior peak and the c declines lower than a. Regardless, the destination changes not.
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
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Maybe we will see a new high of the end of this year ;)
Watch for sharp decline of BTC through the end of the year once CME futures go live next week and market markets start shorting en masse.
BE CAREFUL SHORTING BTC 🤓
Yeah.....As Haejin says....and I have proven to be the dummy going against it several times......NEVER SHORT A BULL MARKET!!!
These futures are cash settled so shorting a futures contract does not actually result in the sale of a Bitcoin.
Thank you for continually pointing this out.....I'm being serious....thank you!
Nice work thanks! Also serious!!
That's not the point though. Almost all futures traded are settled in cash. I've been trading futures for a living for the last 10 years, I've never taken delivery of barrels of oil, or cotton, or gold.
The point is that a legitimate futures market will allow major investors that aren't Bitcoin superfans, like most people buying bitcoins since its inception, a mechanism to short and drive the price of the Bitcoin futures contract down.
The a large dip in the future contract price will cause trader on the open market to slow down their buying of bitcoin, pause, or sell off to an alterative investment, this is where the rise of other coins will come in.
If they short......they will lose. They know better than to short a bull market. Not to mention it doesn't matter. Unless the price progression changes sometime soon, the projection stays pretty much the same despite ANY news or events. At this point, it looks like they will get in just in time for the dip shown above. People will freak out about the futures and blame them....but it's just a healthy correction, then we're back off and running. This train ain't slowing down anytime soon the way it looks now.
/xbt[f8]
Current bitcoin future contract.
$35,000 profit per contract so far if you would have shorted at the beginning of the contract.
https://imgur.com/3Dnob8Z.jpg
This is true, however the primary difference is that the price of the commodities that you listed are decided by the price in the futures market. Whereas, the price of Bitcoin in the futures market is based on the real price of Bitcoin on the exchanges.
Certainly a possibility. There will be some sort of impact. I'm really just trying to point out that it's not a 1-1 relationship...
They are not permitted to short at this stage with Futures - also you need to understand the CASH settled futures markets and the margin requirements involved.
That doesn't even make sense! Of course you will be able to buy AND sell.
Anyways I just talked to a high level broker at TD/Thinkorswim who said everything should be operating as normal when the system goes live.
I think we shall wait for a few, if double top will form we are in beginning of correction.
Check my analysis. I will be glad to hear your opinion.
Your Alt Coin estimation makes perfect sense.....which is why all those lagging pairs can launch off. I have long expected this to happen, but this may be the time around that it happens. It would then fulfill all the needs of the forecasts!
Excellent work as always!
Super Bitcoin 48 blocks away.
498888
http://supersmartbitcoin.com/
Thanks @solisrex .......I've been meaning to post this all night, but I'm busy trying to move my own funds around.....I am so sick of some of these exchanges turn around time.
27 BLOCKS TO GO!
Me too gets Annoying! Price we paid as Trail Blazers
Another one...are you kidding me??? At least this time I have a little BTC but it's still on various exchanges so probably won't be credited.
How long before btc is at ~$70K? B'cause with ETH going to $10k and ETH also going to 0.15 btc... this puts btc around $70k.. How fast could it get there .. in a healthy way of course.
Update follow-up.. wow if I project out to the end of Aug 2018 both prices nail it for possibility.
Any chance USD projection shows anything?
Tomorrow!
Sometimes you would think that right!!
I joined Steem just so I could give haejin some up votes. Nice work haejin, I appreciate your effort!
Me too! Hejin is great..
Thank you so much for caring enough to join and upvote! If you are part of the discussion in the future, I will try to upvote you to help your account gain value! Thanks again, it makes a big difference!
thx so much! guys come on lets upvote! or do you want him to stop? ;O)
Thanks @stephaniewin - That's exactly it! Haejin is EXTREMELY busy, we've got to keep him upvoted and visible!
Haejin would you have a few Alts you'd particularly recommend during this bitcoin correction, or should we just consider your previous 'XYZ is about to pop!' posts?
Thanks again. Trying to upvote everything you've posted.
Your generosity does not go unappreciated!
I can't speak for @haejin but I'm sure he would recommend bitshares.
Please read back for your own benefit of making your own decisions, and use his analysis to augment your own work and research. Looking back, you will see many coins with a whole lot of potential, but nothing is guaranteed tomorrow, or the next day, or the next. His projections are reaching toward the 95 percentile.....so for the most part yes, the recent posts are very telling as to what is a good buy, but patience is always key in this market, and PLEASE watch ALL the tutorials before applying the technique, and so you further understand why you are buying what you are buying. Thank You for supporting the blog! Upvoted you! Keep coming back!
This is my first comment on Steemit. Thank you Haejin is for sharing your knowledge to us.
Could you please update Civic, Cup & Handle Fractals?
finally steemit has let me in!
a big thank you to @haejin and a his lovely community, you have a an active new upvoter ;-)
Thanks for this post again. I have been trying to understand the relationship between Bitcoins and those Altcoins which are traded with Bitcoins and not USD and it's often left me confused - when I am booking profits on Bitcoin, do I do the same with those Altcoins too given the fall in Bitcoin will result in a similar fall in the Altcoin value or is it the other way around. This should hopefully clarify those doubts.
Yes I was wondering about this myself - I'm glad it's not an obvious answer!
Can you please analyze the performance of MEMETIC?
We noticed that you made an adjustment in your morning update today video with a wick on 4 that you didn't think looked right that you said was a mistake, we have been looking at the exchanges and it appears that there was a pump of about 3000 BTC on Bitfinex in at that moment that weird wick came. None of the other exchanges have that weird wick on 4. Seems like a fake pump by a whale, the CBOE opening caused a massive pump at 3pm and then a whale dropped that price later. We think your 2 is higher than it should be and your 4 is higher than it should be and you had it right the first time. What say you Haijen?
Who is "we"? Just FYI....none of the price projections come from ANY news of ANY kind. Only price movement. Haejin sticks to the same feeds to keep consistent. Different paths leading to the same end is the main point. The trend is what matters most, not the exact motions of each buy or sell. When a whale or an exchange or change of the market worries Haejin, he will let us know.....otherwise, all goes as it goes, and all price projections are 100% purely based on market movement.....no matter who or what tries to cause that movement. His latest analysis should answer your question, because that is his latest price projection.
Good work, thank you. I'm really loving Litecoin about now. I caught it at $93.xx, and I'm very happy. lol
Thanks so much for the hardwork Haejin! You truly are a master of your work. Will be recommending you to all my close friends in the crypto space!
I enjoy watching the flexibility of your analysis Haejin.
Great outline as usual - thanks for the clear and timely outlines, VERY informative.
Upvote & resteem ... great job!! - keep it up! follow @lurehound
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Thank you for the insight as always.
Haejin, seems that your primary count about Monero didn’t work at all. Have you updated the EW count? Thanks!
same here :) altough it was a pain to finally get registered
This is a quote from the last XMR update:
" Ladder out and take your profits gratefully and humbly, without a hint of greed! I often ladder out 30% to 50% of position and use the proceeds to ladder back in at the terminal end of the a,b,c correction. The remaining 70% to 50% of position allows me to still gain should prices continue up for a while."
Did you leave 50-70% in, in the case that prices continued to rise for a while?
That’s not my question ;) My question is about the wave count. We were supposed to be ending a cycle with a big correction but it looks like we are already entering a new impulsive uptrend.
It could be....my apologies.....so here is a tip to catching onto trend changes. Don't use it as a bible for trend changes, but it can help you spot one. I have no idea your level of study in the technique presented here....so I'll keep this pretty baseline....
A common sign of a longer term trend change is the swapping of 5 waves up and 3 waves correcting......here's an example....
Can you recognize the difference across the spectrum of each chart.....same coin, different market movement. The key is to recognize the change of the more complex impulses moving upward in image 1 and the more complex impulses downward in image 2. Simple corrections in 1 and simple rises in 2.
All in all, it looks like the BULL market is keeping XMR floating closer to the top than previously expected. The retrace could have been up to 90 percent or so with that extended 5th, but the market is strong, and price is still rising after a smaller than expected correction. There are many ways to spot larger trend changes, but this is usually a dead giveaway. If you see the counts essentially swapped.....cycle after cycle, you can safely assume we're moving to a bear market.
I won't impede on Haejins next count of XMR, but looks like another correction is due, but we are still moving in the BULL fashion forward....take profits and ladder back in....
Actually you really only need image 2, after the terminal end, you see the wave structure change as described.....like I said, not a bible for trend change, but a good indication!
Thank you very much, this is precious studying material to me!
This is in the EW material by Prechter....but I have never heard Haejin reference this type of indicator.....so keep an eye out to see if he nixes this indicator in lieu of pattern recognition.
I would trust Haejin's experience.....especially for cryptos over Prechter's reference to stock indexes.
I don't know much, but 80 dollars in 4 days seems like good enough correction to me.
your analysis is good
You looking pro!
the new year is up to us, hopefully in 2018 we will all be all blessing, I am happy to follow you thank you for sharing,
agree 100 percent
Thank you sir...
Looks like alternate count materialised. Price broke quite decisevily out of channel. Cheers and thank You for update.
Great info!!! Upvoted for sure!!
It's been a crazy last few days!
Double Top?
made the mistake like Luke did and went to meet Darth Vader on my own, reading the waves all wrong. Looking forward to my first winning trade to get some coaching.
Below is what i have plotted out. I know your a busy man but maybe you could cover my mistakes in next video. Thanks a lot.
Jedi is training.
Thank you Haejin. I began with crypto world one month ago and I don't miss any analysis you make since I know you do. I learn a lot each time and recommend you to all people I know who are interested in Crypto. You are so good in your analysis. Each time it's a pleasure to learn from you! Upvoted again!
Thank you!
Today, Bitcoin is NEUTRAL with 10 bullish, 7 neutral and 4 bearish indicators! Uncertainty takes place.
See for yourselves: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@bitcoinbarometer/12-12-2017-bitcoin-is-neutral-today-the-daily-bitcoinbarometer-forecast
You are looking for a daily bitcoin forecast, that uses many more methods to determine the Bitcoin trend besides the comparison of several technical analysis? Follow @bitcoinbarometer to receive concisely daily BTC forecasts for each day of the week.
@bitcoinbarometer wishes a pleasant and profitable day!
Thanks Haejin.
I have sponsored you for steembasicincome.
Link: https://steemit.com/steembasicincome/@steembasicincome/steem-basic-income-ready-for-full-launch
Super Bitcoin fork in five blocks
This is my view;
Thank you for sharing! I find your video useful and fun.
It does look like there is a regular weekly or every second week flow of funds from BTC to altcoins back to BTC, back to altcoins, etc
If possible to predict when the flows are going back and forth, the mony to be made is huge.
I personally failed on last cycle. I gave up on LTC just as it was set to pump, and had too much in BTC.
Live and learn.
Even massive errors like I made can't stop the account from going up.
Great time to make money in cryptos.
In a strong enough tail-wind, even a turkey can fly.