I know that you are not saying that it happens for sure.
However, you have presented rational and well-thought-out arguments.
I am inclined to listen to your voice of reason because you seem to put together a coherent picture of the situation presenting the facts in an unbiased fashion (to the extent that you are aware of the facts). Such commentary is very valuable.
Besides, I only risk capital that I am prepared to lose. Rest assured that I will not lay in financial ruin if you turn out to be wrong, however, I feel quite comfortable with a 50/50 split position at the moment
Thank you.