Let's discuss! CBOE and Bitcoin tomorrow. What are your predictions with futures?

Hi guys,

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With CBOE announce to put Bitcoin into futures trade already on 10th of December, the topic becomes super hot.

Since I've sent some good money to my Kraken deposit, waiting for the moment to buy in, would be interesting to hear other opinions around this.

Good news

As we know, there are discussions going around that Bitcoin is now a big bubble. On the other side there are lot of money waiting to be entered from CBOE and then CME. The CBOE is predicted to bring around 50 billion USD to the market cap. Many analysts say that we are in the early bubble stage and that Bitcoin has to get a long way to pass 1 trillion market cap to make the bubble burst. This makes it reasonable to invest short term for profit.

Any dangers?

As bitcoin will deal with futures, new possibilities will become available, such as trading against the rise of BTC value. How many "bears" are currently in the waiting list, it is hard to tell, but there are high risks of volatility and short-term corrections. I also have read some predicting that BTC will fall to 3k due to "bears" going dominant. Although the mechanism of features will not show instant effect, so we won't see the price drop instantly if this will happen.

My thoughts

Bitcoin price has risen up to 18k and now dropped. I believe that big investors are taking money out in order to make a gap for future profits in face of futures trade coming in. The area is quite speculative. I would personally see how the market goes with CBEO, take a look how many "bears" are in there. The effect won't be instant, but may give at some point indication is it worth to put money into exchange just before CME.

To put this situation into a more safe state, it might be reasonable to go with diversification (i.e. break investment into BTC, ETH, other cryptos as they correlate with BTC mostly).

So far, quite abstract, there are many opinions for price rise and against from leading respected experts. Feeling a bit lost.