The one guarantee is a market will do whatever screws the most people. If you can figure out what that is you're usually on to something.
It seems as if everybody I respect is taking everything out of BTC - if not all cryptos - prior to an expected Aug. 1 shakeout. It made sense to me too until I realized everyone is doing it.
If everyone is cashed out ahead of time there's no one left to sell. Unless cryptos are completely dead and over wouldn't the only remaining action available Aug. 2 be for everybody to buy it all back again and shoot the price up?
Imagine if Aug. 1 does mark a (sharp even) daily low but the people who sold out predictably miss it, 'OMG! It took all day just to get my fiat back in the exchange! Damn that blahbityblahblahblah.com!', and Aug. 2 is in the black. Imagine the fear of missing out as people realize what they thought they'd buy back cheaper is already more expensive.
If all the smart people are selling why isn't BTC crashing already? The only answer I can come up with is smarter people are buying what they're selling.
When the boat is already tilted to one side, unless it is going to the bottom of the lake, there's only one direction left for it to go - the opposite one.
I don't know the future but I do know at important inflection points the crowd usually finds itself on the wrong side of the boat.
but USDT rise a lot in the last weeks. There is a answer to your questions.