I have used a tool to analyze the price levels and volume in the ledger and I have drawn those levels in the chart (yellow). My theory is that those levels should work as significant resistance and support levels.
We can find a 1.63m$ resistance at 3170 (it seems to be bouncing at that level) and then a stronger 3.3m$ at 3200. If 3200 is broken there is no support again until 3100 with a significant 2.5m$ and then at 3000 with 3.43m$. If 3000 is broken the next one is near, at 2950 with 1.7m$ so not too strong and then follows 3.2m$ at 2900. Finally 1.44m$ at 2800 . Below 2800 there is no significant support!
It is curious how people sets buy orders at psychological levels, they don't seem to be taking values from Fibo.
On the resistances we can find:
3.7m$ @ 3400 I see it as a very big resistance, I don't think it will be broken now and it will bounce down again when reached
1.64m$ @ 3600 which is also the support level from 22/08/17 that has just been broken
3.76m$ @ 3800
2.71m$ @ 3900
3.83m$ @ 4000
there are no big pending buying orders above 4000
Now adding Fibo, the 3400 strong resistance matches almost exactly with the 50% "fibo" so it reinforces a very strong resistance at 3400 from which it will probably go down again, may be to the 0.382 fibo which corresponds to 3036 so basically the 3000 psychological level where there is a 3.43m$ waiting to buy. I guess that support, having the money there and matching with the 0.382 fibo will work as a very strong support and will bounce back.
So a trade could be short around 3390, just below the 3400 resistance, and go long just above the 3000 resistance, for example at the 3036 of the 0.382 fibo. That gives us a risk/reward ratio of 5.9 and a 10% gain.
On the other hand, if we look at the long term, we might be at the at Elliot Wave 4, so just one last long term motive wave before we start the long term corrective wave (I'll put another chart for that)
Also we have just broken the SMA50 and it is bouncing back temporarily, as it did as well on mid july. At that time it had a big and fast recovery, let's see now, but that 3800 resistance with 3.76m waiting to sell and fibo 0.618 at 3780 is going to be hard to break.
What do you think?
You can view and follow the chart on:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zMXWA05T-BTCUSD-LEDGER-LEVELS-FIBO-EW/
Disclaimer: I'm not giving investment advice, only expressing the ideas that I have for my own trades.
(15/09/17 - 3:30) Comment after the initial analysis: All sales at 3400 have been fulfilled so next resistance is at 3600 with 1.69m$ right now
Frankly I think this wave thing is useless, it all depends on what the big owners decide, right now I think they dumped a lot to lower the price and then buy all they can at the lowest possible price, after this is done the price will go up, it isn't a wave it is normal human greed.
Precisely, Elliot Waves study the psicology of the market, that is why it is so good at predicting movements. I don't see the logic of the big owners dumping to buy cheap, they are already big owners! On the other hand I do believe that the tactic that you propose might be in progress right now executed by the big banks like JP Morgan, thus the intervention yesterday. They had lost the train so they need to take it down so they can catch it lower again and then pump it. The problem with bitcoin is that the volume is so low compared with other assets that if big banks get involved they can easily manipulate the price. Todays volume in Bitcoin is 3billion when in gold the volume can reach 900billions, and they manipulate the price also...
From the chart I think price goes up some before it has another leg down. Should find support around 3100. Careful here as a bull trap appears then one last explosive push down below 3000, panic follows (time yo buy) ....This is a wyckoff spring. Now let's rip back to 5000 and beyond!
Could happen. ...maybe not lol
Great post. Following You!
Thanks ;)
I have been looking a lot at the volumes and prices on the Chinese exchanges. If we have another night / day like today that will break the confidence of a lot of newbies in this space and they could panic.
A lot of the orders on the books get withdrawn. That is my only thing of going off much of that.
It does upset me thought that people who have no thought into their post and just cheerlead.....BUY THE DIPS . I mean yeah I don't want the thing to get crushed but I'm just presenting it how I see it the same way you are.
Yes, many people just get in the simplistic buy the dips. Probably also out of interest because they are invested and don't want it to go down further. But we have to be truthfull and honest. Not spreading FUB but just showing what the technical analysis shows, the same than when it was showing all time highs.
Upvoted for the jargon that it introduced me to. So traders don't work in the
"This trade will Excel..sell..sell..sell" and
"This is crazy.I am leaving,GoodBye..Bye.Buy..Buy..Buy" way..:P
Confidence boost for someone who believes in Crypto..Thanks!
hahaha, you made me smile ;) Good traders are cold and don't like betting, they want to make money when the signals in the technical analysis are very clear ;)
Nice post with actual mathematical data. Hope too see more posts like that. Just followed.