The ultra cautious people at the end isn't the big, smart money.

Ever heard of the saying 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'? This is because markets are always looking forward and the rumour has already been priced in as fact before the news hits.

Your trading advantage comes if you think that the fact they're pricing in wont happen. In this case, bitcoin dropped so hard because markets priced in the chance of a split. This of course now looks like not happening and before the news has even come out, price is back up to where it was before.

Get in early and manage your risk appropriately :)