You're right about the consequences, but the conflict is more complicated. For weird historical reasons, neither side is promoting what it really wants. Almost all Bitcoin Core developers support SegWit, but the BIP148 UASF promoted by Luke Dashjr is too radical for about half of them. It's a break with their tradition of consensus and resistance to change. And the change in the proof of work he's considering to defend it against a response by the miners is even more controversial.

On the other side, Roger Ver and Jihan Wu would prefer to have a hard fork allowing big blocks without SegWit. But for the time being, they have accepted the compromise called the New York Agreement or SegWit2x organised by investor Barry Silbert, with Jeff Garzik as lead developer.

It looks like SegWit2x will be implemented just in time, but things could get weird if it's too late or one party defects - even a minor player like F2Pool.